CFBMatrix National Predictions – BCS Title Games
All the winners and losers of the BCS National Championship Game since 2004 share the same recruiting trends and ranking range.
Although there will be exceptions in the future, since 2004, the annual College Football Matrix pre-season NCG group of contenders has contained both the winner and loser of the title game. If your team is not listed below, they have shown to have less than a 5% chance of getting into the BCS Title game, let alone winning it. And if they get there, you will not find them as a Best Bet from me in 2012.
The 2012 Contenders
21 of the last 22 players in the BCS title game and all 11 winners of the BCS NCG share the same group of metrics. The only one to not fit within the model is Virginia Tech. While a team is eventually bust this system of profiling the winners group, I’ll take my chances on 11 years of data and correct predictions.
- Florida State
- Notre Dame
It is the biggest group of CFBMatrix Contenders in the decade of doing the list. All fit within the framework of the trends and talent metrics of the previous winners and losers but only two can make it. Lets breakdowns those with the best trends and odds to do so.
Breaking down the contenders
In breaking down the 2012 group of contenders I feel that you can consider a couple of additional factors. Total wins, year over year win total odds and coaching effect.
Total Wins Expectations
In an upcoming July series of articles, I will be profiling the winning is everything BCS top 25 ranking system. I shows, very clearly that total wins is king in the rankings. The #1 and #2 ranked teams have both averaged over 11 wins each before playing in the championship game. By using my Total Wins Matrix we can cull out the teams with very low odds.
- Florida – Only 6% of 6 win teams come back the next season to go from 6-6 to 11-1. None have made it to 12-0
- Auburn & Texas – Only 5% of 7-5 teams get to 11 or 12 wins the next season (Auburn was one of them)
The rest of the teams coming off of 8 or more wins have odds of an 11 or 12 wins season in the 12% to 20% range. Those teams have, in my opinion, much better odds of getting to the NCG.
Poor coaches or coaches coming off bad coaching effect year’s, make the journey to the NCG much more difficult and reduce the odds of getting there and winning the title. The 2012 CFBMatrix Coaching Effect rankings and breakdown do not tell the whole story but gives us an idea about teams to be very wary of when predicting a NCG run. The head coaches to avoid given their current negative coaching effect overall or recent run of the last 2+ years are at USC, Texas, Notre Dame and Florida State. I don’t think it is any coincidence that three of those four teams have coaches on the 2012 CFBMatrix Hot Seats and 9-3 or worse in 2012 may spell the end of their tenure.
Projections and SPG
As noted above, total wins for the season are critical. The chart to the right profiles both the ‘most likely’ win totals for each team as published in March along with each game profiled. Know you need at least 11 wins to get a NCG berth, the top 6 teams on this list would be my odds on favorites to get there on total wins. I would toss out Florida State given the Fisher coaching effect and give pause to USC as well for Kiffin.
There is a huge gap between getting there and winning a national title. Sure, by just getting to the game, you have a shot. But odds put the best bet in the corner of the most talented team on a neutral field. The teams that are on the fringe of elite talent that I would be disinclined to favor winning the title are Oregon, Michigan and Notre Dame.
- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix & your Anti-Homer Follow @cfbmatrix
August 14. 2012: For a new breakdown angle on these teams from ESPN and Travis Haney read the ESPN article linked here