2012 Bowl Picks Breakdown & Pool Cheat Sheet – Matrix Style
For the last 7 years I simply posted the bowl picks for the College Football Matrix based solely on the talent rankings. All games being mostly neutral fields and non-conference match-ups, I didn’t bother to account for the field adjustments or Coaching Effect. But, I began to see a pattern of Coaching Effect in games that I missed on the winner. The average year is about 73% correct just using the team with the better talent ranking in my system.
At the risk of over thinking the whole thing, I am adding in several new elements for readers to consider. With over 3 millions page reads this football season, there are a lot of you. I hope the new information helps you in your pools and you like what I am posting this bowl season.
I will be updating this chart from now until Saturday the 15th. Tweet me or email me with questions or a request for more information to be added. I appreciate all the readers, followers and subscribers in 2012 and look forward to 2013 and spread the word of the Wide-Angle View of the College Football Matrix.
Happy Holidays and Cheers!
Notes on the chart:
Matrix Pick (1): This is the straight up normal pick based only on talent rankings I use for all season game predictions on March 1, 2012
Talent Gap: The ranking spot difference in the picked winner versus the loser. Ex: Arizona picked to win has a +34 ranking spots in talent above Nevada.
Road Coach Effect:The 2012 Coach Effect games total by team listed first for the bowl (ex. Nevada HC +2 games)
Home Coach Effect: The 2012 Coach Effect games total by team listed 2nd for the bowl (ex. Arizona HC +4 games)
Pick Adjusted: For AQ/AQ and non-AQ/non-AQ teams playing, go with a coaching effect difference +4 games or more. In the past, this has been a difference maker. The pick may lean to the strongest coaching effect and not just the talent ranking.
Road Team Score: This is the average score of the team listed first in the team column for their road games. Since this is a neutral field, I prefer to look at their patterns away and exclude home games.
Home Team Score: See above but for the 2nd team listed in the team column.
Ave Combined Score: This is the number you get when you combine what each team scored and gives up on the road in 2012. It may help those of you looking for scores, spreads or point totals for your pools.
Misc. Notes on Games/Lines out of sync with season ending road averages:
- Toledo v. USU -10. Toledo hasn’t lost a road game by more than 7 this year and their average road score is 31-28. USU average road score is 32-21. Blended it is 30-26 or 4 points vs. ATS line of 10.
- Oregon/KSU total is about 75 right now. Their average combined road score is 67 total points. That is a huge difference. Take the Under
- Florida and Louisville both had average road totals Over the current line. Hammer the Over 44.5 on the Sugar Bowl
- Rutgers/VaTech total is 41 but their average combined road score is 47 points.
- Notre Dame -9.5 looks to be off total combine season road averages especially with 41 total points the opposing line.
- TCU/MSU total down to 39.5 and they averaged 45 points on the road between them
- LSU/Clemson is at 60U. Wow! LSU average road game was 29 points, Clemson 67. Average together 50.
- The current total on OKState/Purdue is 70. OSU ave 76 point games on the road but Purdue just 50 points. Combined they averaged 62 point games.