A review of year over year win total metrics and percentages
Since 2001, there have been 453 win/loss records for AQ schools involving 12 game seasons. While this is not a large sample size, it can provide a window of expectations for expected outcomes for every team in the country. This is certainly not a tell all but it gives a good snapshot of your team and where to set your inner-homer bar to start the season. Here is one of the many stats from this chart. 78% of all teams that win 7 games in a 12 game season since 2001, stay above .500 the following year! Let’s breakdown the chart for each AQ win level in 2012.
I use this Matrix as a way of validating total win predictions for teams that are seemingly off the chart for predictions. A great example is the Maryland Terrapins. Last year they were 2-10 and this year were projected at 6-6. Huge jump! But in this chart teams coming off 2 wins have a 50% of getting to 6-6. It is even higher when you know the details found in the #Winning section of the site. Here is what I think are the most compelling numbers to note for annual win totals and the odds for those going up or down in 2012.
Enjoy. -Dave Bartoo Follow @cfbmatrix
0 Wins - No teams are coming off zero wins in 2012
1 Win - 4 out of 5 teams (80%) go 4-8 or better in the following season. One in five got over .500
2 Wins – 50% of these teams (6 of 12) get to .500 the next year! That is a big jump and gives some down fans hope for for 2012
3 Wins – Only 24% of these teams go 3-9 or worse the next season so don’t expect a step back. But don’t look too far ahead as only 29% (6 of 22) make it to 6-6 or better. Feel free to expect improvement.
4 Wins – 76% of 4 win teams go 5-7 or better the next season and 56% make it to .500 or better. But who needs stats? Washington State fans already think it is 100% chance of being bowl eligible this season.
5 Wins – A no-mans land win total. 55% move up to 6-6 or better but 39% go 4-8 or worse. So of the six teams with 5 wins in 2011 (UConn, Kentucky, South Florida, Syracuse, Tennessee and Texas Tech) we can expect 3 of those to not get to .500 or better in 2012. HOT SEAT!
6 Wins - 65% of the 48 teams coming off 6-6 seasons were 6-6 or better the next year. Only 15% (7 teams) fell to 4-8 or worse.
7 Wins - With 77 teams having hit 7-5, it is the most frequent win total in the Matrix. Amazingly, 77% of those teams were at 6-6 or better the next season. But don’t expect a huge jump as only 9% went from 7 wins to 10 or more.
8 Wins – This is a win total that is not too appealing. Only 1 out of every 5 teams that stops at 8 gets to 10 or more wins the next season. Stagnation or dropping back is most likely with 68% of the 8 win teams posting a 8-4 record or worse the next season.
9 Wins - The numbers are pretty even for this group. 33% go on to 10 or 11 wins (none from 9-3 to 12-0 yet) and the rest stay at 9-3 or drop. It is a coin flip but 53%
10 Wins - 45% of 10-2 teams stay at 10 wins or more. 4% jump to 12-0. 26% drop to 7-5 or worse so the fall, if it happens can be steep. These are usually teams with less talent (lower recruiting rank) and had a meteoric year and are adjusting back to the norm of their talent.
11 Wins – Nearly one in every five teams go from 11-1 to 12-0. 41% of 11 win teams stay in double digits for the following season and 55% drop to 7-5 to 9-3.
12 Wins – While an undefeated season is very special it is even harder to repeat the feat. It has happen just 1 time since 2001. 43% of 12-0 teams stay at 10+ wins the next year but just over one in three goes to 7-5 or worse.