2013 Pre-Season PAC12 Coach Effect Matrix
Breaking Down PAC12 2013 Coach Effect Metrics
If you don’t know what the CFBMatrix ‘Coaching Effect’ is please click here to listen ))) Coaching Effect Defined
Skip the reading and Listen))) Coach Effect PAC12 2013
Please keep in mind this IS NOT how I, nor the Matrix numbers, perceive total coaching ability. This by no means takes into account recruiting ability, records and anything else you want to throw in the mix. I created and use this tool, like everything else, to establish trends and tell a story.
Most head coaches follow trends, good and bad. Positive coach effect guys usually start positive. the same can be said for the negative coach effect guys. It usually takes a couple of years to get a good bead on guys but there are exceptions. Look at Houston Nutt. Rock star in year 1 and 2 at Ole Miss then………
I can tell you guys that start off bad get canned. Go -4 net game coach effect in your first year and…well since 2004 not one of those guys ever saw a 4th year. Last year Edsell and Wilson. This year Fedora and Beckman.
I don’t include new head coaches in the rankings that have no track record in the Matrix. Guys like Bielema (#12 +1.25 games) are in there. I also did not ‘rank’ the guys coming off 1 year. I am all about trends and don’t think a guy with 2-5 years of trends is good to mix with coaches that could be one hit wonders or failures.
Let’s just get Kiffin out of the way. We all know he is not good. He did replace Mack Brown as the worst coach effect heading into 2013. But enough is enough. Complaining about him is about as effective as suspending Chip Kelly from NCAA coaching for 18 months.
You got 3 guys that are brand new. None have ever coached at the AQ level. Two were positive coach effect guys at the non-AQ level but ask Utah and Cincinnati what happens when you change to the big boys.
Rich Rod had a smoking 2012. +4 anytime is great but Stoops left him with crap and he did a tremendous job. Best coach though, and I know it’s just two years, but I’ll take Shaw. Maintaining recruited talent, won a conference title the AFTER Luck left and coach effect is balanced on the road and at home.
Whittingham and Riley at 1.80 and 1.60 both top 10 in the country. Utah has to recruit better or bowl eligible will always be a good year.
Graham, Leach and Mora. Pretty much what was expected. Graham a bit better than a normal first year head coach. Mora right where you expect and Leach just doing what he did at Texas Tech (except one LIAB year).
The next to last guy, and still way ahead of Kiffin, is Sarkisian. But entering his 5th year, he has never had a positive coach effect season. They have their highest talent level and lowest attrition since he has been there. The schedule is favorable. Win or go home.
Using the Coach Effect Matrix:
I use it for gauging total wins expectations for any given team and also for looking for upsets to occur. Combine a strong road upset coach and a weak home coach and Whammy! you’re finding a direction. I do not use it for determining individual win/loss game projections (it’s just talent & field) but will look at this for total wins projections.
Link it in your favorite CFB forum (I’ll find it), articles, call me for a podcast, comment below or what ever. I am always available to talk my work and CFB.
The rest of the conference breakdowns are posted in The Red Pill Blog for review and comment as well.
New head coaches are NR. Guys coming off 1st years are in the chart but unranked for their trends pending 2013.