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Coach Effect

2013 Pre-Season SEC Coach Effect Matrix

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Breaking Down SEC 2013 Coach Effect Metrics

By Bartoo

If you don’t know what the CFBMatrix ‘Coaching Effect’ is please click here to listen ))) Coaching Effect Defined

Skip the reading and Listen))) Coach Effect SEC 2013

Please keep in mind this IS NOT how I, nor the Matrix numbers, perceive total coaching ability.  This by no means takes into account recruiting ability, records and anything else you want to throw in the mix.  I created and use this tool, like everything else, to establish trends and tell a story.

Most head coaches follow trends, good and bad.   Positive coach effect guys usually start positive.  the same can be said for the negative coach effect guys.  It usually takes a couple of years to get a good bead on guys but there are exceptions.  Look at Houston Nutt.  Rock star in year 1 and 2 at Ole Miss then………

I can tell you guys that start off bad get canned.  Go -4 net game coach effect in your first year and…well since 2004 not one of those guys ever saw a 4th year.  Last year Edsell and Wilson.  This year Fedora and Beckman.

Click to go to National Coach Effect Rankings Article

I don’t include new head coaches in the rankings that have no track record in the Matrix.  Guys like Bielema (#12 +1.25 games) and Jones are in there.   I also did not ‘rank’ the guys coming off 1 year.  I am all about trends and don’t think a guy with 2-5 years of trends is good to mix with coaches that could be one hit wonders or failures.

The SEC leader by far is Franklin.  Now keep in mind, whit the recruiting levels of Vanderbilt, they play few if any games against teams that they out recruit.  Being upset to get negative coach effect is uncommon.  The opposite if true for the Bamas, UGAs, LSUs, etc.  They have few chances for positive coach effect.  Remember it’s not a ranking more so a trending tool for projecting win totals and game outcome expectations.  Example: LSU, Georgia and Florida are more likely to loss at home than on the road.

The SEC has very good and stable coaching.  Until Petrino and now Franklin (give Sumlin props for one huge year for now) no one coach had trended above 2+ games per year coach effect.  We will see if it lasts for Franklin and Sumlin.  To be competitive at the lesser recruiting schools like Mizzou, Kentucky, Vandy you need a big time coach effect guy.  Missouri is in trouble as their recruiting will remain static and Pinkel is not a big coach effect guy.  If you are going to go from a top 5 recruiter in one conference to bottom 4 in another you better know how to pull out wins against fair better talent.

Using the Coach Effect Matrix:
I use it for gauging total wins expectations for any given team and also for looking for upsets to occur.  Combine a strong road upset coach and a weak home coach and Whammy! you’re finding a direction.  I do not use it for determining individual win/loss game projections (it’s just talent & field) but will look at this for total wins projections.

Discussion: 
Link it in your favorite CFB forum (I’ll find it), articles, call me for a podcast, comment below or what ever.  I am always available to talk my work and CFB.

The rest of the conference breakdowns are posted in The Red Pill Blog for review and comment as well.

SEC 2013 Pre-Season Coach Effect Matrix

New head coaches are NR. Guys coming off 1st years are in the chart but unranked for their trends pending 2013.

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