2014 Fallers – Team Recruiting
Getting Knocked Back
Top Surprises [bad] in 2014 Recruiting
By Dave BARTOO
I said this in the Risers in recruiting article, but it bears repeating the perspective…..
For most college football teams, recruiting is a challenge to simply maintain. Most programs, when you observe their averages year after year, you will find they are stuck near a consistent average of recruiting. Some highs. Some lows. But for every four or five years, about the same talent level. This is what I call “rangebound recruiting”.
For the rare teams, they break out, one way or the other. Clearly up is the goal. But there is a a set amount of talent each year. If your team rises, another must fall. To have any big break out year is exceptional. To do it for several years, extremely difficult. To break out, re-establish a new ‘range’ and maintain it is very rare. even if it is to the down side as a team regresses in talent.
However, to breakout, it has to start somewhere. In 2014, there were 6 teams whose 2014 class composite ranking in the CFBMatrix that under performed their 5 year average class ranking by over 10 rankings spots. This is a huge hit to the total talent stratification of a program. You don’t get this year back and it stays with the program for at least 4 years. This is a significant start to a potential trend. However, keep in mind, only two of these teams was on the 2013 Recruiting Fallers List. Colorado and Utah. [Texas & BYU were on it too*]