2014 Team Recruiting Trends
2014 Team Recruiting Trends Matrix
Where is your team coming from & where is it going
By Dave BARTOO
Every winner and loser of the National Title game this century was a CFBMatrix top 25 recruiter coming into the season they went to the title game. 80% of the winners of the Heisman trophy over the last 40 years were from top 20 recruiters. While recruited talent is not the end all to exactly what will happen to any team in any given season, it is clear that the more talent you have in a program, the higher the ceiling is for achievement in any given year.
I do not believe, as the statistical performance backs it up, that no one ranking system is better than another. Each recruiting bureau has their own ‘formula’ or algorithm for ranking teams but they are all biased to some extent. To reduce this bias I use all their rankings with applying a ‘special’ formula for a composite and adjust for known team/conference bias. In my biased opinion, I feel this is the most fair way to rank classes. But of course, as a fan of a team, feel free to find the highest ranking of your team in any given year. Feeling good about your team is part of the never ending battle for reassurances of future success.
With recruiting for 2014 completed, let’s take a look at each team’s trends in recruiting to get a feel where they are heading with this upcoming class. Each class will have some kind of impact on a team for the next 5 years so don’t take them lightly. Solid talent stratification is important in keeping performance consistent. You will find that most programs are range bound in recruiting in that over a 5 year period, in spite of big ups or downs in single classes, recruiting is often stagnant or stuck in a range of rankings.
Little Bartoo side note for fun. I like 10/5/1 ranks for two reasons (1) CFB teams move in 5 year moving average cycles and (2) on average 10% of 5-Stars, 5% of 4-Stars & 1% of 3-Stars make an NFL Roster.
1 Year, 3 Year, 5 Year and 10 Year Team Rankings*
*ESPN not included in most rankings as they have not ranked 1-125 in the past. 247 added in 2012. And unlike all other ‘composites’ I don’t use a special formula to reconfigure them. No one site has a better team ranking formula than the other (unless you believe them).