About the CFBMatrix Model
The CFBMatrix model got it’s start in 2004 when I was looking for the correlation between college football team recruiting ranking and BCS title game berths. The connection between the two was very strong and I used this system to help ‘tell the story’ and create a model for likely expectations for every BCS team.
I really enjoying using and sharing the model as it provides an unemotional and different view of expectations than the thousands of ‘experts’. However, it is not complicated and unexplainable like the BCS system and it’s math algorithms.
You may find some, if not many of our observations and opinions not in line with yours or the mainstream media. However, the facts and numbers speak for themselves and the information contained in this website is simply the result of what the data tells us. We do not have a bias to the facts, nor do we let emotion play a part in our statistics, rankings and predictions. We simply want to be correct and factual. We know that we cannot get it all right. But we can come close and at the same time create a profile of expectations for each team.
Please keep in mind that if you are looking for us to tell you that the season is a level playing field, or the Big East is a strong CFB conference, that undefeated non-BCS schools should have an equal shot at a national title or that every coach is good then this is the wrong website for you.
Deep down, most college football fans have a idea about the strength of schedule, the under or over performance of teams and conferences and we try our best to bring ideas and light to reasonable expectations for each team. Simply put, it is what it is. We are not going to go into the nature of formulas or ‘statistically significant whatevers’ in our stats and predictions, but our numbers are based in past results and future performance.
As for me, I have been a season ticket holder at Autzen Stadium for nearly a decade. I live in Oregon and my real work takes me all over the country. Clearly I like new ideas and angles to everyday life and love predictability (even when the model predicts Oregon to loose). The “CFBMatrix” got the official name in December of 2009. I was getting ready to leave for Pasadena when my buddy Darren asked me what the “Matrix” said would happen at the Rose Bowl. He had always been intrigued by it and so I told him it was about 80%+ in favor of the Buckeyes. He doesn’t ask much anymore about big game outcomes for the Ducks.
I will take questions, concerns, and suggestions from all fans. I am looking add to our group of dedicated college football junkies to add in information about conferences, blogs, news, recruiting information, roster information and forums for everyone. Let me know what you would like to have available through us.
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Props & Support
It all started with the idea if recruiting rankings correlated with BCS title teams. We all know it is clearly correlated, but there have been some folks that have inspired, pushed and supported the process just to post the site.
John Hollinger ESPN – With his Per Diem and statistical modeling for NBA predictions showed that folks like this ‘stat’ based modeling and that it can really go somewhere. Follow him @johnhollinger on Twitter and at espn.go.com
Colin Cowherd ESPN – Before ESPN he was on here in my backyard in Portland, OR. He would consistently preach the value of recruiting to every program and that success or failure to recruit would usually dictate a direction of a program. Throughout his discussions about teams, I found that my model paralleled his opinion and direction of a program. He indirectly has backed the modeling through his opinions and provided some positive emotional validation.
Justin Hopkins – One of the first and only recruiting site guys to allow me to post my thoughts and ideas at 247 sports and Duck Territory. Recruiting is everything to the model and you can follow him @jhopkins247 on Twitter and find the rest of the 247Sports guys there as well.
Dr. Micah Thorp – For reminding me I am crazy about numbers and that he would run the regression on all my conclusions on the CFBMatrix recruiting baseline. Turns out they were dead on right but he proved it for me. Wouldn’t be able to stick my guns with the model without his support.
Darren Hudgins – My neighbor and buddy for telling me to get off my ^%$^%$ and quit talking about my model and start posting it for other college football fans to read. He also started the ‘matrix’ terminology for the model when he was asking about the Rose Bowl of 2010.
The guys on The Out of Bounds Show with Bo, Cooper & Donny on FM 105.9 The Zone . These guys have got to be nuts to have me on the air for a trial run. First radio show to take a risk on my model, grammar and diction. Thank you Y’All Sports!