About CFB Matrix

Playoffs

Advanced Playoff Committee Rankings – Week 12

By  | 

Unlocking the Playoff Committee Top 25

College Football’s #1 Projector of Weekly Playoff Rankings

By Adam McClintock and Dave Bartoo

The week prior to the Playoff Committee releasing their first top 25, Adam and I set out to create several models that could match what the committee did a year ago, in an effort to provide an advanced look at what to expect in their rankings.  This exercise, if a reasonable model could be created, would also help establish a pattern of ranking behavior so we can track if they are being consistent in ranking or are an inexplicable moving target every week.

Since our first modeling we have refined our projections and have been the #1 advanced playoff committee projection model since the playoffs started the rankings in 2014.

This is our first go at it for 2016.  We had to remodel the entire system after a huge bot from the Atlanta area wiped out a ton of data bases in an attack.  In rebuilding the model, we were able to use the excellent work from Heather Dinich of ESPN of playoff committee members to enable us to read between the lines and find the bread crumbs of their methodology.  Follow her on Twitter @CFBHeather.

We determined the best course is to model each week with the base 5.0 model, then apply the “PC” rules to re-ranking the teams.  You can think of “PC” as short for playoff committee or politically correct, both may work in this situation.

Click to check out our Week 11 Ranks and Results

Notes and thoughts for week 12:

  • Reminder: This is just a simple formula based on the playoff committee past behavior and stated tools they use to rank teams.
  • We do not see a plausible path for Louisville to get into the playoffs.  They are blocked by Clemson, unless Wake beats the Tigers, the Cardinals will be on the outside looking in.
  • Ohio State is is big trouble without a Penn State loss.  They must get into the Big Ten title game.  Penn State and Wisconsin will have top 25 SOS ranks and 4 or 5 quality wins if they win the title.
  • Michigan and Wisconsin are in should either one win out.
  • Washington will be fine if they win out as well.  It will add 2 QWs, improve their poor SOS and add 2 top 25 wins.
  • Saban can pull a Popovich and rest his starters in the Iron Bowl, win the SEC title and still be seeded no. 1.
  • Oklahoma and West Virginia cannot get into the playoff.  They are missing that 13th game, the round robin reduces quality win opportunities, neither has a win over a top 25 team and only 3 quality wins each and no outright title.  Toast.
  • Chaos is Clemson losing to South Carolina, Washington State beating Washington or WSU or Colorado winning the PAC 12 or Alabama losing in the SEC title game.
  • G5 teams that have playoff hopes need to schedule as many quality power 5 games as possible.  They have no shot without 3 or more P5 victories.

WEEK 12 Advanced Top 25 Rankings

 week-12-2016-pocomm-advanced-ranks

2 Comments

  1. joebe

    November 16, 2016 at 11:17 am

    No offense buddy but you said this in 2015. And Michigan State trumped the trend. A lot of tables and numbers I don’t see you post proof and evidence here. Its all over the place.

    Since 2015 the conference champion schools has always been Top 3 recruiter in the past 4 years for their division. That doesn’t make any sense since Michigan State finished fourth in the Big Ten East in 2013 in recruiting and won the Big 10 Conference outright 2 years later.

    • Dave Bartoo

      November 29, 2016 at 11:20 am

      Need to look at all p5 divisions and Michigan state was the #3 recruiter in the east since PSU went on sanctions thru 2015. Only this year has PSU recruited and avoided attrition to the point of passing MSU in the ranks

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *