While the CFBMatrix has evolved into many different ways to evaluate teams using a level playing field of simple performance numbers, the core of the Matrix is to use these 3 simple numbers for predicting team game and total win outcomes.
Nearly 70% of all game outcomes in a season can be predicted 6 months in advance using the single CFBMatrix talent ranking for each team. Those games are then adjusted for where the game is played. I have been able to calculate at home/away value for some teams with long time coaches, for others they get a national value. In using the field adjustment, the pre-season picks for individual games can get into the low 80’s for accuracy. In game which the talent is close, the field will often determine the likelihood of a win or loss.
“The Show has had 1000′s of guests & very few get stamped a genius.
Dave Bartoo and his angle on CFB is simply genius.“
- Bo Bounds, Host, Out of Bounds Show, ESPN The Zone
Finally there is the coaching effect adjustment. For new coaches, I use a national average or past performance metrics to gauge what is going to happen to a particular team in any given season. For long term coaches they develop patterns of being + or – games below the predictions and some even have specific home and away patterns of how they are upset or pull off the upset.
I have never been able to show any other aspects of the game to have an influence on the outcome. Sure there are twenty twenty hindsight stats like turnover margin that we know has an influence on the end results, but to determine what those numbers will be year over year or game over game is silly to try. While the CFBMatrix is not perfect, it is a unique system of telling the story of teams, coaches and programs. It was also the #1 pre-season game picking publication in 2011 and the #1 national publication for picking the order of finish in the SEC, PAC12 and the Big Ten in 2011.
Thanks for entering the CFBMatrix. There is something here for every football fan from the novice armchair quarterbacks to the crazy hardcore diehards that need every angle available.
- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix & your Anti-Homer Follow @cfbmatrix