So to sum up we started with 124 and cut it to the #32 line established by the one rouge NCG berth season of Virginia Tech.
Cut #2 wiped out those not in the top 3 of talent in their conference or division. Since only 13% of those teams have won a conference in the last 10 years in my Matrix, no reason to play into those odds. This knocked out another
So here we are at 18 teams left in the CFBMatrix breakdown of teams to get a National Title Game Berth from the BCS. At this point there are just s few team left that get cut by the closest of margins. Anyone of these could make a run to GET INTO THE BCS NCG but none of these cut match the winners and losers of 23 of the last 24 teams in the NCG.
These are the teams that do not have the combined talent level ranks of the previous 18 NCG winners and losers. Talented teams, yes. Elite teams, no.
- Virginia Tech – IMO their time has passed for now. They took advantage of the elite recruiters being down for a long time. FSU is still undercoached as is UNC but Clemson is much better. They need to build on the 2013 class with a few more top 25 classes.
- South Carolina – Always a bridesmaid never a bride. The gap between USC and UGA and the Gators is too much to even bet them winning their division. And if somehow they get into the SEC champ game they have to beat a more talented SEC West team. Odds too long for the Gamecocks.
- Nebraska - The Huskers schedule in 2013 is nothing short of garbage or in other words, a great chance to win at least 10 games. I expect the Huskers to go 10-2 but with an average coach and huge attrition of experience this team is just not good enough to expect a BCS NCG berth in 2013.
15 left – Cut #4
This is the group of teams that have not exceeded averaging recruiting ranks over the last 5 years. For the first time in 4 years, there are none past cut #3 that have been eliminated by the minimum attrition and recruited talent ranks of the CFBMatrix.
15 left – Cut #5
- Clemson – The most talent team in the state, but in a conference that is much easier than what Carolina faces in 2013. This would have been a good year for the ACC to realign the conference to get Clemson opposite of FSU on schedule. Oh well. They get FSU at home but leaving UGA and USC on the OOC schedule is suicide to a season with so much potential. Learn to play the game Tigers.
- Michigan – Here it is. If UM doesn’t get to 10+ wins this year they have the wrong coach. This team should be smoking everyone in the Big Ten but OSU. Anything less than a Big Ten Champ game and a shot at the Rose Bowl is another lost season.
- Washington – Surprised? Maybe but this team has had some of the most consistent top 25 classes in the last 5 years. Their attrition from 2010-2012 classes is very low. When you are Huskies in Seattle going to stop thinking 7 wins is OK and he just needs one more year?
12 left – Cut #6
- Oregon - The difference between making the cut and not is next to nothing but it’s still on the wrong side of the pond. They weren’t cut for this reason but new head coaches don’t make NCG runs in year 1.
My bets for teams to be a CFBMatrix Buster from Cut 3,4,5,6
Oregon – This is still the 2nd best talent in the PAC12 and the conference title is going through Stanford this year. No USC on the schedule and only Washington and Stanford offer tough road tests. In the end, new coach, new system and not enough to be in the final cut.
Clemson – The #2 team in the ACC. What will hold them back if they don’t bust the Matrix is the crazy out of conference schedule. Talent depth and above average coaching with Georgia and South Carolina on the schedule is going to be too much.
Michigan – Another #2 team in a conference but their talent gap over the one below them is more than any other #2 team. The problem is they haven’t been able to put it together and beating OSU back to back for a NCG berth. Odds are against them.