This is it. The 11 teams that match all the key metrics of 23 of the last 24 players in BCS National Title Games. It’s also the last year of this particular formula as the BCS NCG 2.0 kicks in next season for the 2015 championship. But the new formula is already done because there is very little that is going to change the players in the title game going forward expect a stronger lean to the 14 team SEC.
If you are not totally CFB nuts and haven’t be keeping track of the last 11 that met the Matrix metrics here they are with notes on coaching effect and historical trends to go with them.
- Alabama – duh
- USC – As long as Kiffin is there this team will stink. Lane has underperformed in every year he has been a head coach. I don’t expect anything less out of Troy
- Florida State – Another underperforming season for the Noles. However, with Manuel gone, maybe we can see a 12 or 13 win team. Either E.J. or Fisher is dragging this thing down. 2013 is come to Jesus time at FSU.
- LSU – Schedule is brutal and early attrition is high. I don’t know who at the SEC office hates the Tigers but why are they the only ones in the West with more than 1 game against top talent in the East.
- Ohio State – Low attrition and Meyer in year 2. Lights out. This should be a strong favorite to the BCS title game. No team that is #1 in recruiting for their conference has a bigger talent/coaching gap between themselves and the rest of their conference. Anything less than a Big Ten title is a wasted season going forward for the Buckeyes.
- Notre Dame – They learned how to win in 2012 and still have huge amount of talent in a schedule that is still very hard. The worst part of their schedule, tough home game where they have struggled the last 3 years.
- Texas – Low attrition and huge talent levels. Now an article came out about lazy coaching. Wow… so not surprised. And they are still there. Need to clean house DeLoss. Patterson is waiting.
- Oklahoma – This is not the elite Sooner teams of the early 2000s. Stoops and Co. lost their recruiting edge and have hit a down turn. Still no reason for not winning a Big 12 title. Very much a NCG berth player.
- Auburn – I know. WTH Dave? Sorry folks but they are elite recruiters and their attrition is low. 2012 was the worst coaching job of this century by Gene. I would even put it ahead of the 5-7 turd Mack Brown hand out a few years back. Nevertheless, Gus know Auburn and they will be tough.
- Georgia – No one has a tougher first 4 that the Dawgs. But they get LSU and South Carolina at home and UGA is tough on the road. You can’t win a NCG berth in September but you can lose it. UGA or Clemson are losing it before September. SEC West could beat themselves up this year. This is a team to beat on.
- Florida – Another very solid schedule. Only LSU on the road looks like a disadvantage. FSU at home in the final week could be for a BCS title berth. UGA and the Gators for the SEC East again.