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Myth Busters

Best in the SEC Off a Bye?

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CFB MythBusters Fan Challenge

In our CFBMythbusters series, we want fans to challenge us to assumptions, myths, ideals and anything else that we could challenge to prove or disprove with stats. Today we look at:

Spurrier_130907_000018_TB-“Who is the SEC best coach after a bye week?” – Mike in Louisiana

While working on the results, we polled our twitter followers here.  The results were 47.92% to Coach Spurrier with Coach Saban a distant second place in the poll.  Mike’s question became the assumption that Coach Spurrier is the best head coach in the SEC coming off of a Bye.

I asked Steven to tackle this question and assumption that Spurrier is the best in the SEC off a bye week.  Here is what he said:

I started with a spreadsheet of looking at every SEC head coach.  The first issue was with the number of bye weeks in a season and coaching tenure.  With just two or three byes a year, the sample size of coaches with less than four years of experience is less than 10 games.  I removed most of the SEC coaches from this look due to that very issue (and if included, none have better numbers than SOS) leaving just Miles, Saban, Mullen, Richt and Spurrier. I also tossed out non conference games as I don’t feel they give a good representation of ‘coaching’ and used only SEC week over week and SEC coming off a bye stats. My results matrix for each coach is below. 

The upper half of the matrix for each coach is their winning and cover percentages playing an SEC conference game after a game the previous week. I went an extra step and broke it into home/away/by month for some additional granularity. The second half of each coach’s matrix is their win/cover percentages playing an SEC conference game coming off a bye week.  You can argue about who is no. 2 through no. 5, and for guys like Saban and Miles, their post bye metrics are somewhat skewed by having such strong winning rates on regular weeks.   However, no. 1 is, in my opinion, Coach Steve Spurrier.  Nearly every metric coming off a bye exceeds his regular performance in a non-bye week.   – Steven J.

CONFIRMED

See: National CFB Winning Rates off a Bye: CLICK HERE

SEC HC numbers after a bye

 

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