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Myth Busters

Better Off a Bye?

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CFB MythBusters Fan Challenge

In our CFB Mythbusters series, we want fans to challenge us to assumptions, myths, ideals and anything else that we could challenge to prove or disprove with stats. Today we look at:

”Coaches have a better winning record coming of a Bye week than regular game weeks.” – Reed Carringer @FootballTimeInTN

I really like this one as I personally believe that it should be a significant advantage to have twos to rest, scout and prep your next opponent.  The CFB Matrix in me says otherwise as most coaches are average and talent wins most football games.

Over 50% of our poll responders backed up Reed’s assumption that head coaches do better off a bye week so Steven added on to his SEC Matrix myth buster work to look at the Power 5 conferences. Here is what was uncovered:

  • Total winning percentage coming off a bye week to play a conference opponent: 51.4%
  • Off a Bye Week at Home winning percentage: 58.6% (a 5% gain in home win rate)
  • Off a Bye Week on the Road: 44.2% (exactly the same as regular week win rate)
  • Best month for a Bye: October with a 55% winning percentage
  • WOW stat that surprised us: September winning percentage down 21% and cover rate down 13%

Given the 51.4% off a bye week total winning percentage, the assumption that Reed made and our national poll supported is:

CONFIRMED

COn f Stats Regular and POst Bye

CFBMatrix Chart by Steven J.

More on post bye coaching found in The Saturday Edge: Betting on teams with extra time to prepare

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