Formula Beta Testing for College Football
Using numbers to find and edge ATS, Over, Under and SU
INFO: For those of you new to this page and other beta testing formula pages, I have simply decided to put some testing online for public consumption. I am always searching for a story within the number and this testing is trying to find an edge in ATS, Totals and SU plays against the CFB Lines. Remember this is just a test until we show a formula is a boom or bust.
Year To Date: The last 6 weeks finished 7 games over .500 on lines under 8 points. That was the break line for success this year. Those huge CFB lines were too much for all the models. Back to the drawing board this off season. For the bowls,
NOTES: In the previous weeks I have been putting up huge spreadsheets on the Beta page. No more. At this point 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.1 formulas have separated themselves into clear favorites and usefulness. Here is how I will note them for each game going forward:
- 3.0 is best used only when the away team has a better CFBMatrix talent ranking. I lean towards it when both teams have decent Coach Effect numbers.
- 4.0 Nothing trumps this formula to date. She is the leader of formulas and the first one I look at for guidance. After 8 weeks of testing, 4.0 is 29 games over .500 ATS. Nuf sed.
- 5.0 and 5.1 is a moving average. I hope/expect this formula to gain strength in the latter half of the season as it phases out the OOC games and focuses solely on conference play. My hope is that by November, this is the dominate formula.
- 6.0 is not a formula but the manifestation of using the above formula in conjunction with the CFBMatrix team data base. In the last 4 weeks the ‘special’ 6.0 teams are 20-9 ATS. They are posted below as I find them.
- TOTALS: I think that totals mostly suck. Probably because I cannot find a profitable pattern or formula. It seems like it is 50/50 most of the time. However there are clear times in which all formulas lean one way by over a touchdown. I will post those leans too.
Bowls – The Games
NOTE FROM DAVE: I can’t think of a more wing ding scenario for college football betting than bowl season. So many games in which the team with better talent see the game as a bad OOC on their schedule. Most of these games are hard to contrast as the teams are from very unbalanced conferences. I will run them through the beta formulas and give you notes and feedback to my personal thoughts. If you use them for due diligence and win your pools that is great. Lose and I never posted them!
Regardless, this is the last week of the CFB season. I want to wish you Happy Holidays and my personal thanks for being a reader, follower and supporter of my unusual approach to telling the story of college football. Cheers!
*WINNER OF EACH GROUP GETS 5 lbs OF CFBMeatrix BBQ Rub *
- Screw the models. I am making picks and posting my notes. A lot of these games are crap shoots anyways. Let’s have fun and hope for the best. I took my best shot at confidence levels ranging from 1-3 with one being the best.
- (1) WSU -3.5 and yes I am OK with the -4.5. All day, every day. Top third confidence ranking for me
- (3) The hell with USC/Fresno. There is no real comparison here. FSU would be killed in the PAC12 and USC is coachless but very talented in the starting 22. I am sticking with USC but in truth I take FSU and the points and hold on to your butts!
- (2) SDSU +2.5 – I got them winning so as a dog of course they cover. If this comes down to a FG though we are all screwed.
- (2) Tulane PK – Both team meh this year. I’ll take the talent. Plus ULL, like Marshall on the road this year is garbage.
- (2) ECU -13.5 – Tough here but Ohio bad on the road and ECU just scores and scores and scores.
- (2) Georgia -10 – YTD metrics put UGA favored in the white rabbit by 5-7 points. But the SEC is a lot tougher than the Big Ten and when you look at both teams last 4 weeks this is more like -14 UGA.
- Louisville is in a division II conference and Miami is from the worst coached division in college football. Strong sucks at home but solid on the road. The Canes have done nothing but face plant the last month. The hell with Golden, who is on year three of under performance. They do it again as Louisville wins and covers.
- (1) Beavers +2.5 – Easy as hell. Better coach, better players. What else you want in a neutral field with less than a FG on the line? Seriously.
- (2) Pitt +6 – AQ vs Div II with no good coach effect and I get 6 points. Hell ya. But does Pitt care to play this bowl. Weak sauce match up for the Panthers.
- (2) NIU -1.5 in the anti-recruiting bowl. Both outside top 00 in recruiting annually. Both huge coach effect numbers this year. One with, one without their star. Taking the Div II star.
- (2) Maryland +2.5 – Another AQ vs Div II match up and the D2 team favored. Marshall can score. Maryland can’t but that is ACC vs some conference. +1 Coach Effect for Terps vs -2 for Marshall (all on the road BTW). Give me the points and the ACC team (except UVA. They suck awful. Why isn’t London fired yet?)
- (2) Minnesota -4: True White Rabbit betas on even conference/recruiting teams leans Minnesota to win in all tests and cover in 2 of 3. Score projection 31-20 Minnesota
- (2) BYU and points. Look for +3.5 UW/BYU still a question mark. Who is coaching UW? If no one gotta lean BYU
- (3) Rutgers -15.5. Look I got Notre Dame to win SU but the Irish have been suffering through another under performing season but Flood is so bad. Low confidence here.
- (3) Cincinnati +3. I have UNC to win but going to hedge it with Cincy to cover. All the models put Cincinnati within 3 points and Fedora is one of the worst coaches in football.
- (2) KSU -3. Everything in the metrics point to a KSU win except the Michigan talent. I am getting real damn sick and tired
- (2) Middle Tennessee +6.5 Even talent, even coaching and you get 6.5? All the models are Navy by 3 to 4.5. Go Navy if you get -4.5 or less
- (2) Ole Miss -3. This may come down to Ole Miss and their lack of run D versus the running game of Georgia Tech. Overall, Tech had a more efficient year but with a much easier schedule. Too much of a Matrix talent gap to take GT for me.
- (2) Texas +14.5 – Why? Because Texas has been playing OK in November and Oregon has not. No way I am walking away from 3 scores in a bowl that Oregon fan doesn’t care about and that Mack is coaching for the last time.
- (2) Texas Tech +13.5 – TT from a lesser conference and lesser schedule but the numbers don’t like ASU more than -11. I’m taking the points with marginal apprehension as TT faded in November and ASU, sans the PAC12 champ game, was on fire.
- (2) Arizona -7.5 – Really close call here. Would like is -6.5 or less. November has Arizona 10 points better than BC. Year to date leans BC to cover. Sticking with the hotter and more talented team
- (2) UCLA -7 – Talent edge UCLA. Coaching edge big UCLA. White rabbit projection of score, UCLA by 6.5. Right on the edge so leaning to talent and coaching
- (1) Miss State -7 – Better coach, way better talent and the team that ran with Bama for 3 quarters is giving up only a TD versus a Div 2 school? Whatever. Only team apathy as this is one of the wrost games of the year on the schedule for the Dawgs will give Rice a shot.
- (2) Duke +11.5 – A&M has much better talent than Duke but the Devils have been playing over their skis the last month and A&M has been just slogging along. A&M wins in every model but Duke keeps it close enough.
- (3) N. Texas -6.5 – Not my favorite but all the models like North Texas. UNLV has the talentand will go UNLV to cover if you can get 7.5 or more.
- (1) South Carolina +1 – Equal coaching but better talent is a Matrix lean to USC. White Rabbit also has USC winning in November metrics.
- (1) LSU -7.5 – All the formulas have LSU by 7 to 16. Huge talent and coaching edge to LSU. They show up it is over fast.
- (2) Michigan State +4 or more. SU at -3.5 or less. I just see Stanford playing to the level of whatever team they are against. ASU two weeks ago was an exception to that but I’ll take their trends and MSU’s D.
- (2) UCF +16.5 – Not that I don’t love Baylor with their talent but UCF can play offense with Baylor. Expect a fun shoot out. If goes under 16 take Baylor.
- (1) Alabama -10.5 – It’s not that the talent is so far apart but the year to date efficiencies are way off. It is rare to see two teams with such a variance in metrics. Over +14.5 I am jumping to OU. Bama isn’t that good, especially since we haven’t seen them since the Field Goal – Six, and OU not that bad.
- (2) Missouri -1 – Basically a pick’em. Talent near even. Coaching near even. White Rabbit leans Mizzou
- (2) Ohio State -2.5 (Wait for it to keep falling) – Not a #1 confidence because of what just happened in the Big Ten conference champ game. It is not the way they lost but the emotional aftermath. Motivated, the Buckeyes have a better coach and talent than Clemson.
- (1) Vanderbilt -3 – Great coach versus below average coach. Better talent, better projections. Give me Vandy all the way to -7.5
- (3) Arkansas State -9 – Low confidence. The numbers point to ASU covering on all the models but their HC is gone. However, these guys are used to playing this way. 3rd straight bowl without a head coach.
- (2) Florida State -8.5 – Even the models are OK with FSU to -13.5. That is very odd and shows the Noles absolute dominance this year. It also does not hurt to be in the ACC.