About CFB Matrix

BCS NCG 2012 – Old School meets New School

By  |  0 Comments

Putting together CFBMatrix and Phil Steele NCG Contenders

Back in March, I posted my 11th annual BCS Title Contenders Group.  This group of teams share the common characteristics of winners and loser of BCS National Title games.  In the last 11 years this group has ranged from 9 to 11 teams.   21 of the last 22 winners and losers of the National Championship game have come from this preseason modeled group.

This year, the group at Phil Steele, put together their analysis and correlation of past winners to produce their own group of contenders.  They have been a hallmark of the college football preseason so I think it is great that they are making an attempt to identify the teams with the best odds to win the National Title.

CFBMatrix 2012 BCS NCG Berth Contenders

This year, my army of 1 identified 11 teams, 2 on the fringe, that meet the metrics for making a run at a BCS NCG berth.  While a team is eventually bust this system of profiling the winners group, I’ll take my chances on 11 years of data and correct predictions.

  • Alabama
  • Auburn
  • Florida
  • Florida State
  • Georgia
  • LSU
  • Notre Dame
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Michigan
  • Texas
  • USC

It is the biggest group of CFBMatrix Contenders in the decade of doing the list.  All fit within the framework of the trends and talent metrics of the previous winners and losers but only two can make it.

Steele & Co. 2012 BCS Title Winners Group

  • Alabama
  • Oklahoma
  • Florida St.
  • Oregon
  • LSU
  • South Carolina
  • Michigan
  • Michigan State
  • Texas
  • Nebraska

The CFBMatrix and Phil Steele Group Together

Applying the Steele logic to my group tosses out Auburn, Georgia, Florida and USC.  And my numbers show that Michigan State and Nebraska have nothing in the CFBMatrix trends in common with any winner or loser of the title game in the last 8 years and put South Carolina on the fringe with Notre Dame.  Throwing out out disagreements you get these teams for the National Title.

  • Alabama
  • LSU
  • Oregon
  • Oklahoma
  • Florida State
  • Michigan
  • Texas

I am not going to argue against that small group.  5 elite recruiters and 2 semi-elites (who both have favorable schedules).  Remember this is for the winner but both teams could easily come from this group.

Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix & your Anti-Homer

CFB Maven. National Radio Show Guest. The 1st word on CFB thru The Wide-Angle Lens of CFB. Attrition Analytics Consultant & owner of #UpsetAlert & #PaceOfPlay

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>