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Choosing the new Duck Commander – The Matrix Dozen

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Mark Helfrich has been teetering at Oregon ever since Marcus Mariota put on a Titans jersey.  As Dave and I predicted in the offseason; Brady Hoke has proven that he was the hire that finally broke the Ducks back.  So where do the Ducks go from here?  Here is a list of 14 candidates that would all be acceptable hires in Eugene according to our metrics.  The first 4 are coaches the Ducks should back the money truck up to, they are homerun hires; the next 4 are good values in the sense they have the potential to yield great results with a smaller price tag; the last 4 are high risk, high reward candidates, these candidates have the potential to be great, but could also be the College Football equivalent of the Hindenburg; 1 wild card candidate, who may be out of reach but if the coaching carosel spins right the Ducks could be in play; 1 Darkhorse candidate from the FCS level.  This is a list that we feel fits the culture and personnel needs at Oregon.  Not every list we have for every program is the same.  This list is also realistic; Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, or Chip Kelly shouldn’t be on every list.  Dave and I try to provide Athletic Directors realistic options as best our knowledge of each situation allows.

 

For comparison’s sake, here is Mark Helfrich’s numbers the past 4 years:

 

HC Experience in Database: 4 Years

Average Win%: 68%

Average Recruiting Class: 22nd

Average Roster Talent Difference: +30.11

Recruiting Impact: -2.917

Grade: C+

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Scott Frost, A+ OC

Matt Lubick, B+ OC

Don Pellum, F- DC

Brady Hoke, F- DC

 

 

 

 

“Back Up the Money Truck” Candidates

  1. Mike Gundy – Oklahoma State

HC Experience in Database: 9 Years

Average Win%: 73%

Average Recruiting Class: 31st

Average Roster Talent Difference: +21.59

Recruiting Impact: +3.181

Grade: A

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Dana Holgorsen, A OC

Todd Monken, A+ OC

Mike Yurcich, B OC

Tim Beckman, D- DC

Bill Young, B- DC

Glenn Spencer, C+ DC

 

  1. Gary Patterson – TCU

HC Experience in Database: 9 Years

Average Win%: 76%

Average Recruiting Class: 46th

Average Roster Talent Difference: +8.13

Recruiting Impact: +9.500

Grade: A+

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Mike Schultz, C+ OC

Justin Fuente, A+ OC

Jarrett Anderson, D+ OC

Doug Meacham, A+ OC

Dick Bumpas, A+ DC

Chad Glasgow, A DC

 

  1. Mike Leach – Washington State

HC Experience in Database: 7 Years

Average Win%: 58%

Average Recruiting Class: 51st

Average Roster Talent Difference: -1.55

Recruiting Impact: +20.567

Grade: B

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Dana Holgorsen, A OC

Ruffin McNeill, C+ DC

Mike Breske, F+ DC

Alex Grinch, A+ DC

 

  1. Kyle Whittingham – Utah

HC Experience in Database: 9 Years

Average Win%: 69%

Average Recruiting Class: 47th

Average Roster Talent Difference: +5.65

Recruiting Impact: +28.091

Grade: A+

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Andy Ludwig, C- OC

Dave Schramm, B OC

Norm Chow, F- OC

Brian Johnson, F OC

Dennis Erickson, B+ OC

Dave Christensen, A+ OC

Aaron Roderick, C- OC

Gary Andersen, A+ DC

Kalani Sitake, B DC

John Pease, A+ DC

Morgan Scalley, A DC

 

“Good Value” Candidates

 

  1. Scott Satterfield – Appalachian State

HC Experience in Database: 3 Years

Average Win%: 71%

Average Recruiting Class: 113th

Average Roster Talent Difference: -21.56

Recruiting Impact: +5.111

Grade: A+

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Frank Ponce, A OC

Nate Woody, A+ DC

 

  1. Bryan Harsin – Boise State

HC Experience in Database: 4 Years

Average Win%: 77%

Average Recruiting Class: 72nd

Average Roster Talent Difference: +14.84

Recruiting Impact: +1.567

Grade: A+

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Mike Sanford Jr, C OC

Eliah Drinkwitz, B- OC

Zak Hill, A- OC

Marcel Yates, C+ DC

Andy Avalos, A+ DC

 

  1. PJ Fleck – Western Michigan

HC Experience in Database: 4 Years

Average Win%: 58%

Average Recruiting Class: 73rd

Average Roster Talent Difference: +4.73

Recruiting Impact: +42.000

Grade: B

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Kirk Ciarrocca, C+ OC

Ed Pinkham, A+ DC

 

  1. Jeff Brohm – Western Kentucky

HC Experience in Database: 3 Years

Average Win%: 73%

Average Recruiting Class: 92nd

Average Roster Talent Difference: -4.51

Recruiting Impact: +4.940

Grade: A

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Tyson Helton, A+ OC

Nick Holt, B+ DC

 

“Boom or Bust” Candidates

 

  1. Neal Brown – Troy

HC Experience in Database: 2 Years

Average Win%: 61%

Average Recruiting Class: 105th

Average Roster Talent Difference: -9.54

Recruiting Impact: +2.257

Grade: A-

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Kenny Edenfield, C OC

Vic Koenning, A DC

 

  1. Phil Montgomery – Tulsa

HC Experience in Database: 2 Years

Average Win%: 58%

Average Recruiting Class: 96th

Average Roster Talent Difference: -11.65

Recruiting Impact: +0.871

Grade: A

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Sterlin Gilbert, B- OC

Bill Young, B- DC

 

  1. Scott Frost – Central Florida

HC Experience in Database: 1 Year

Average Win%: 60%

Average Recruiting Class: 66th

Average Roster Talent Difference: +6.63

Recruiting Impact: +16.901

Grade: C+

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Troy Walters, B OC

Eric Chinander, D- DC

 

  1. Dino Babers – Syracuse

HC Experience in Database: 3 Years

Average Win%: 56%

Average Recruiting Class: 86th

Average Roster Talent Difference: -0.740

Recruiting Impact: +11.055

Grade: B

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Sterlin Gilbert, B- OC

Kim McCloud, F- DC

Brian Ward, D+ DC

 

“Wildcard” Candidate

  1. Tom Herman – Houston

HC Experience in Database: 2 Years

Average Win%: 86%

Average Recruiting Class: 66th

Average Roster Talent Difference: +10.030

Recruiting Impact: +3.879

Grade: A+

 

Coordinator Hires/Promotions:

Sterlin Gilbert, B- OC

Kim McCloud, F- DC

Brian Ward, D+ DC

 

“Darkhorse” Candidate

  1. Beau Baldwin – Eastern Washington

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