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Coach Effect of the Year Rankings – Week #12

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2013  Bill Snyder Coach Effect of the Year


Last update 11|18|2013

This page will track all the net positive game coaches.  Every time a coach ‘beats’ the Matrix model in a predicted loss they will earn +1 game effect.  Each loss when a win was predicted is a -1 effect.  The coach with the greatest positive effect in 2013 with be our CFBMatrix Bill Snyder Coach of the Year.

I have a number of reasons for feeling that this methodology is very good for considering the best and worst ‘coaching’ job for 2013.  (1) There is no media, popularity or emotional bias, (2) The CFBMatrix was the #1 publication in 2010, 2011 and 2012 for picking win/loss outcomes of all AQ football games in the pre-season and (3) it uses the same stats for picking the games and it does in  determining the best coaching  job.

To be a the Coach Effect of the Year, I see it as doing more with less.  The elite recruiters like Miles, Saban, Kelly, Hoke, etc should be doing well and winning a lot of games.  The CFBMatrix model has already conclusively proven that fact.

*I decided to name the award after the single best + coach effect season in the last 10 year of Matrix tracking.  +7 games is so far an above the norm it is ridiculous.  No one has, and in my opinion will, come close to that mark in the coming decade.  In this century there is only one head coach with 5+ years of experience with an annual + game effect over 3.  Snyder is at +4.1.

2010 Co-Coach Effect of the Year – Jim Harbaugh – Stanford and Bobby Petrino – Arkansas +4 games
2011 Coach Effect of the Year – Bill Snyder – Kansas State +7 games
2012 Coach Effect of the Year – Bill Snyder – Kansas State +8 games

(((LISTEN))) Update through Week #12


Week #12 Breakdown

It was a mixed bag of results in week #12.  For the non-AQs there was little coach effect handed out as 17 of the 21 games were picked correctly using CFBMatrix talent/field strength ranking back in March, 2013.

For the AQs about half the guys were already on the board.  A few of them made moves into co-leader positions for Coach Effect of the Year for their conference.  Kill, O’Leary, Cutcliffe, Pinkel, Dantonio and Leach doing the most with the least in their conferences.

A couple of guys fell to zero coach effect with bad loses this weekend.  3 guys posted their first +1 game effect and are on the board for the first time this season.

Moving up the Board

  • David Cutcliffe: What a great home win for Duke over a Miami team that was still in the division race.  Not any more.  Easily one of the best coaching efforts in the country to date.  Moves to ACC co-lead with Johnson of Georgia Tech.
  • Bill Snyder:  Stop being surprise.  After returning one starter on defense, the team is jelling Snyder style.  Two straight weeks of +1 game coaching.  For a team that recruits in the 70s, every game they win in the Big12 Snyder is out coaching someone.
  • Mark Dantonio:  Back to +3 coach effect.  Dantonio is just one game from Kill/Claeys for #1 spot in the Big Ten.
  • Mike Gundy: Another road upset and this time face stomping Mack Brown and the ‘Horns in Austin.  Might have been the huckleberry for someone Texas fans still supporting Mack.
  • Mike Leach:  The 2nd worst recruiter in the PAC12 in the last decade is one game from bowl eligible.  Leach’s best coaching effect to date.
  • Steve Spurrier:  Sure it was a bit of a cheap +1 for beating the Gators at home but I maintain the Gators are still very talented and what truly lacks is culture, organization and coaching ability.  Definitely not in that order.

New to the Board

  • Mike MacIntyre – Colorado  Nice W at home over a crap Cal team
  • Tommy Tuberville – Cincinnati  Best coach effect ever for Tommy.  And can you believe the W was on the road at Rutgers.
  • Randy Edsall – Maryland.  I still say he is dead man walking but this team was -4 last year and is now +1.  Edsall did a lot with much less at UConn.  Let’s be patient and see where the Terps are in 2 years.

Off the Board

  • Al Golden – Miami
  • Rich Rod – Arizona

Non-AQ guys you better learn about (if your program is hiring soon)

  • Tim DeRuyter – Fresno +4
  • Rod Carey – NIU +3 (hedging this until we see NIU w/out Lynch)
  • George O’Leary – UCF +4
  • Rick Stockstill – MTSU +3
  • Pete Lembo – Ball State +2
  • Mark Hudspeth – ULL +2
  • Larry Coker  – UTSA +3 (Yes that Larry Coker)
  • Dan McCarney – North Texas +2
  • Todd Berry – ULM +2

2013 Current Leader board

Overall – +4 George O’Leary UCF  and Tracy Claeys Minnesota

SEC –  Gary Pinkel – Missouri +3 games
ACC –  Paul Johnson – Georgia Tech and David Cutcliffe, Duke +3 games
PAC12 – Todd Graham – Arizona State and Mike Leach, Wazzu +3 Games
BIG 12  –  Mike Gundy OK State +2 games
BIG TENJerry Kill/Tracy Claeys  – Minnesota +4 games
American – O’Leary – UCF  +4

+4 Games Coaching Effect

  • Jerry Kill’s Interim Head Coach – Minnesota (8) (9) (10) (11)
  • George O’Leary – UCF (3) (6) (8) (11)

+3 Games Coaching Effect

  • Paul Johnson – Georgia Tech (4) (9) (10)
  • Gary Pinkel – Missouri (7) (8) (10)
  • Todd Graham – Arizona State (5) (8) (11)
  • Mike Leach – (2) (6) (12) Wash. St.
  • Mark Dantonio – Michigan State (6) (10) (12)
  • David Cutcliffe – Duke (8) (9) (12)

+2 Games Coaching Effect

  • Gary Anderson – Wisconsin (8) (10)
  • James Franklin – Vanderbilt (8) (11)
  • Scott Shafer – Syracuse (7) (11)
  • Bill Snyder – KState (10) (12)

+1 Game Coach Effect

  • Jim Mora – UCLA (3) Nice road W
  • Steve Spurrier – South Carolina (7)
  • Gus Malzahn – Auburn (8)
  • Mike Riley – Oregon State (-1 week 1) (5) (8)
  • Hugh Freeze – Ole Miss (8)
  • Jimbo Fisher – Florida State (8)
  • Tommy Tuberville – Cincinnati (12)
  • Mike MacIntyre – Colorado (12)
  • Randy Edsall – Maryland (12)
  • Steve Addazio – Boston College (10)
  • Art Briles – Baylor (11)

Non-AQ Leaders

  • +4 DeRuyter Fresno State and Matt Wells Utah State
  • +3 Larry Coker – UTSA, Rod Carey Northern Illinois and Rick Stockstill MTSU
  • +2 games Jones South Alabama, Hudspeth ULL, Caragher SJSU, Lembo Ball State, Mendenhall BYU,  McCarney North Texas and Berry ULM

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