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Coach Effect of the Year Rankings – Week #13

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2013  Bill Snyder Coach Effect of the Year


Last update 11|27|2013

This page will track all the net positive game coaches.  Every time a coach ‘beats’ the Matrix model in a predicted loss they will earn +1 game effect.  Each loss when a win was predicted is a -1 effect.  The coach with the greatest positive effect in 2013 with be our CFBMatrix Bill Snyder Coach of the Year.

I have a number of reasons for feeling that this methodology is very good for considering the best and worst ‘coaching’ job for 2013.  (1) There is no media, popularity or emotional bias, (2) The CFBMatrix was the #1 publication in 2010, 2011 and 2012 for picking win/loss outcomes of all AQ football games in the pre-season and (3) it uses the same stats for picking the games and it does in  determining the best coaching  job.

To be a the Coach Effect of the Year, I see it as doing more with less.  The elite recruiters like Miles, Saban, Kelly, Hoke, etc should be doing well and winning a lot of games.  The CFBMatrix model has already conclusively proven that fact.

*I decided to name the award after the single best + coach effect season in the last 10 year of Matrix tracking.  +7 games is so far an above the norm it is ridiculous.  No one has, and in my opinion will, come close to that mark in the coming decade.  In this century there is only one head coach with 5+ years of experience with an annual + game effect over 3.  Snyder is at +4.1.

2010 Co-Coach Effect of the Year – Jim Harbaugh – Stanford and Bobby Petrino – Arkansas +4 games
2011 Coach Effect of the Year – Bill Snyder – Kansas State +7 games
2012 Coach Effect of the Year – Bill Snyder – Kansas State +8 games

(((LISTEN))) Update through Week #13


Week #13 Breakdown

Week #13 just added fuel to the avalanche of talent failures and great coaching efforts in 2013.  I have never seen a month like this November for upset after upset.  But a majority of it is coming from the same group of guys.  Of the 20 head coaches at +1 or better coach effect through week #8, 14 of them have a been ranking today.

It’s like a broken record.  O’Leary, Cutcliffe, Pinkel, Graham and Leach all getting +1 game effect again this week and easily doing the most with the least in their conferences.

A couple of guys fell to zero coach effect with bad loses this weekend.  3 guys posted their first +1 game effect and are on the board for the first time this season.

Moving up the Board

  • David Cutcliffe: What a roll for Duke.  Good lord are they hot.  It all seemed to start clicking in teh 2nd half in Blacksburg as the Hokies season started down a old Duke path and the Blue Devils followed an old Virginia Tech path.  ACC #CoachEffect of the Year at +4 locked down.
  • Todd Graham: The wins just keep coming for the Sun Devils.  It is easy to overlook that they are the 8 recruiter over the last 5 years in the PAC12.  Other # recruiters in their conferences?  Try Illinois, TCU, Tennessee and NC State.
  • Steve Addazio – Boston College: He was solid at Temple and it has carried over.  I expect BC to have recruiting start to rise back into their old range and the team improve in the ACC going forward.  Hopefully he isn’t too good and the Eagles get cherry picked by a big program.
  • Mike Leach – Washington State:  His best coaching year of his career.  Easily.  WSU has nothing compared to Texas Tech and he has them bowling.  Truly an amazing effort in year 2.  For those of you that think coaching takes time to sink into a new program.  Time to adjust your thinking and quit making excuses for your sorry coaching staff.
  • James Franklin – Vanderbilt:   Another amazing year and in the SEC no less and from the 2nd worst recruiting spot in the conference.  This is it.  I am fully all in on him running a big program.  He WILL BE at Texas, USC or Florida within 90 days or he is a Vandy lifer.  Forever.
  • George O’Leary – Central Florida:  The Knights are one game away from a auto-BCS bid and one week from being a non-AQ school.  Amazing.  Both in what is happening and about to happen.  What a great job by George and his staff.

Zero effect guys going to +1

  • Rich Rod – Arizona:  Huge W over Oregon.  I think RR has found a place to stay and run wild as recruiting is trending up under his guidance.
  • Dan Mullen – Mississippi State:  Locks in his 5th straight zero or positive Coach Effect season.  Never a negative year for their talent and schedule.  Careful what you wish for in Strakvegas those that want him replaced.

YTD Negative Coach Effect guys with good wins in Week #13

  • Bo Pelini – Nebraska (-1 game ytd)
  • Kirk Ferentz – Iowa (-2 games ytd)
  • Tim Beckman – Illinois (-2 games ytd)
  • June Jones – SMU: Does anyone care?  They are non-AQ in a week

2013 Current Leader board

Overall – +5 George O’Leary UCF

SEC –  Gary Pinkel* – Missouri +4 games (SEC West leader Mullen & Sumlin +1)
ACC –  David Cutcliffe* – Duke +4 games (Atlantic leader Johnson +3)
PAC12 – Todd Graham* – Arizona State and Mike Leach* – Wazzu +4 Games
BIG 12  –  Mike Gundy* OK State +2 games
BIG TENJerry Kill/Tracy Claeys*  – Minnesota +4 games (Legends leader Dantonio +3)
American – O’Leary* – UCF  +5

*Coach is locked in for no worse than co-leader of Coach Effect for his conference

+5 Games Coaching Effect

  • George O’Leary – UCF (3) (6) (8) (11) (13)

+4 Games Coaching Effect

  • Jerry Kill’s Interim Head Coach – Minnesota (8) (9) (10) (11)
  • Gary Pinkel – Missouri (7) (8) (10) (13)
  • Todd Graham – Arizona State (5) (8) (11) (13)
  • Mike Leach – Washington State (2) (6) (12) (13)
  • David Cutcliffe – Duke (8) (9) (12) (13)

+3 Games Coaching Effect

  • Paul Johnson – Georgia Tech (4) (9) (10)
  • Mark Dantonio – Michigan State (6) (10) (12)
  • James Franklin – Vanderbilt (8) (11) (13)

+2 Games Coaching Effect

  • Gary Anderson – Wisconsin (8) (10)
  • Scott Shafer – Syracuse (7) (11)
  • Bill Snyder – KState (10) (12)
  • Tommy Tuberville – Cincinnati (12) (13)
  • Steve Addazio – Boston College (10) (13)
  • Steve Spurrier – South Carolina (7) (12)

Non-AQ Leaders

  • +4 DeRuyter Fresno State, Larry Coker – UTSA, Matt Wells Utah State and Rick Stockstill MTSU
  • +3 Rod Carey Northern Illinois

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