Dave’s Fave Metric – Scoring Efficiency – 2015
Weekly Ranking of Dave’ Favorite Matrix Metric (Final)
This is a reminder that I go by the scoreboard. Not the yards per carry board or points per game board, but the scoreboard. I believe in efficient football, and the winners of the national title are all VERY efficient football teams. The good ones are efficient at scoring on offense, Ohio State was my no. 2 on offense last year, or efficient at limiting scoring on defense, TCU was top 10 in both. The great teams are efficient at both like the 2012 Alabama team that was no. 1 in offensive and defensive scoring efficiency.
READ: Every national title winner in the last ten years was top three in either offensive or defensive scoring efficiency and all have been top 10 in total scoring efficiency. Last year the top five in total CFBMatrix scoring efficiency: Ohio State, Oregon, TCU, Alabama and Georgia.
My Current Tier I Title Teams for 2015: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Alabama, Ohio State
Final Dave’s Notes: All but one the the Top 25 teams with one loss or are undefeated are in the top 25 of total scoring efficiency (Mich St #37). The four playoff teams on 2014 were all in the top 25 by year end. Michigan State is the first of 8 teams to make the playoffs without a top 25 CFBMatrix total team scoring efficiency rank.
OFFENSE: Your top three offensive teams, in terms of talent and current position to make the playoffs are Baylor, North Carolina and Oklahoma.
DEFENSE: Ohio State and Alabama are the only top 10 teams in the top three of defensive scoring efficiency.
TOTAL: North Carolina, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State are all in the top 10. Every National Title winner of the last 10 years is from the top 10. I will be displeased if Alabama and Oklahoma seeded together. By talent and Matrix efficiency trends, the national title game will be Alabama vs Oklahoma.
Final Note: Teams in the top 25 of this final ranking, are top 10 recruiters and return over 16 starters have the highest odds of winning a national title in 2017: Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State and Notre Dame.