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14 Coach Options for Oregon Football

Adam and Dave dive into realistic options for the new Duck Commander

UPDATE NOTE TO ARTICE
11.30.16 –
(Dave) I have done a lot of radio shows and taken a ton of texts and tweets about what is next for Oregon football. I was right in calling the ball that, quickly, after the Civil War, a change was going to be made.  I was correct that Helfrich was out, wrong that the next guy was ready to go after a month or more of searching.  With all the names and questions, I am turning this post into a log of names and rumors that are shot at us for our ‘take’.  As for who it will be, I am sticking to the last 2 years of Duck hiring trends.  It will be regarded as a lame hire and piss most people off.
————————————————————————————————————–

11.29.16 – (Dave & Adam) Heard Patterson was contacted but unsure if still talking or split.  Good year to try and grab him. Texas should have done it 3.5 years ago.  This is my favorite realistic P5 head coach.  Innovator and explosive offense.  Patterson has one of the best coach effect metrics of the last ten years.  He needs to bring Meacham then go steal Leavitt from Colorado, who knows PAC12 offenses and is vastly underpaid.

(Dave) Nuimatalolo has an incredible Coach Effect.  Led G5s last year and was a top head coach again this year.   It would be funny to see the option at Oregon as it would be unique and difficult to prepare for with top 25 talent.  I don’t know how well he can recruit and the triple option will not help get the recruits needed to get where Oregon wants to go on offense. I my opinion he would be killer fun at Purdue in the West division where talent is not a premium and he could contend for a West title with the triple option.

(Adam) Niumatalolo does more with less talent than almost anyone in the country; and would be an intriguing hire anywhere, but it has to be the right place.  In order to endure a P5 schedule, he would need higher caliber players and more depth than he has ever had at Navy.  Those type of players are hard to recruit to a pure option offense due to the perception (which isn’t necessarily true) that it’ll hurt their goal of being drafted high in the NFL.  I’ve talked to Dave a few times about how Niumatalolo would be great at a place like Purdue where he’d be competing in the Big Ten West where the talent level isn’t high and late season weather is conducive to ground and pound football.

@CFBMatrix how do you feel about future Oregon HFC Lane Kiffin? — Hardy Wallbanger (@HardyWallbanger) November 30, 2016

(Dave) – His metrics as a OC with elite talent are top 10.  We all know he is a great recruiter and has been in the PAC12.  That being said, he significantly under performed the talent at USC.  He’ll get a shot at head coach sometime, but I feel it needs to start in the G5s and prove himself.  San Jose State needs a HC.

(Adam) Kiffin as a HC is different than Kiffin as an OC.  He struggled to win consistently at USC where his talent discrepancy was never below +31.8.  Oregon’s talent discrepancy is closer to +25.2 on average.  He’d be a good OC hire, but not HC at this point.  He needs to get a job at a G5 school that can afford him and prove himself before being given another shot at a job like Oregon.  Houston would be a good trial run for Kiffin.

 

11-20-2016: With the understanding that Oregon may have not made the decision to replace most of the football coaching staff, Dave and I wanted to break down, what we felt, were the best fits for the Oregon program moving forward. We wanted to give fans a 10,000 foot snapshot of our approach to the ‘potential’ vacancy after the Civil War is done. It is a limited list with differing categories .  All hires come with risk and fans will gravitate toward the ‘category’ that best fits their image of a new coach.  For fans, like ADs, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

This is a program that has never been a elite recruiter, but one good enough to try and win a national title.  Now the Ducks are at their lowest recruiting average in 7 years.  The program is at least 3 years away from competing for a conference title and has no natural recruiting area and coaches travel the second farthest in the country to reel in LOIs.  That is the downside.

Here is a list of 14 candidates that would all be acceptable hires in Eugene according to our metrics.  The first 4 are coaches the Ducks should back the truck up to, as we feel they are the best available and realistic hires with a track record of above talent performance.  The next group of  4 are ‘good values’ in the sense they have the potential to yield great results with a smaller price tag.  The final group are the highest  risk/reward candidates.  These coaches have the potential to be very good, but have little experience and track record to base a sound decision upon.  We do not feel these are the best options for a top 20 recruiter.  There is one wild card candidate, who we feel is out of reach but if the coaching carousel spins right, and the price is right, the Ducks could be in play.  Lastly, the high risk/reward FCS darkhorse candidate.

This is a list that we feel fits the culture and needs at Oregon.  Not every list we have for every program is the same, nor is our recommendations for those ADs that employ our work for their hiring process.  This list, we feel, is realistic. While every fan would love an Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, or Chip Kelly, they are not realistic for but a few to no programs.

For comparison’s sake, here are the metrics we have for Mark in his tenure:

HC Experience in Database: 4 Years
Average Win%: 68%
Average Recruiting Class: 22nd
Average Roster Talent Difference: +30.11
Recruiting Impact: -2.917
Grade: C+
Coordinator Hires/Promotions Tree:
Scott Frost, A+ OC
Matt Lubick, B+ OC
Don Pellum, F- DC
Brady Hoke, F- DC

“Back Up the Truck” Candidates

  1. Mike Gundy – Oklahoma State
    HC Experience in Database: 9 Years
    Average Win%: 73%
    Average Recruiting Class: 31st
    Average Roster Talent Difference: +21.59
    Recruiting Impact: +3.181
    Grade: A
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Dana Holgorsen, A OC
    Todd Monken, A+ OC
    Mike Yurcich, B OC
    Tim Beckman, D- DC
    Bill Young, B- DC
    Glenn Spencer, C+ DC
  1. Gary Patterson – TCU
    HC Experience in Database: 9 Years
    Average Win%: 76%
    Average Recruiting Class: 46th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: +8.13
    Recruiting Impact: +9.500
    Performance Grade: A+
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Mike Schultz, C+ OC
    Justin Fuente, A+ OC
    Jarrett Anderson, D+ OC
    Doug Meacham, A+ OC
    Dick Bumpas, A+ DC
    Chad Glasgow, A DC
  1. Mike Leach – Washington State|
    HC Experience in Database: 7 Years
    Average Win%: 58%
    Average Recruiting Class: 51st
    Average Roster Talent Difference: -1.55
    Recruiting Impact: +20.567
    Grade: B
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Dana Holgorsen, A OC
    Ruffin McNeill, C+ DC
    Mike Breske, F+ DC
    Alex Grinch, A+ DC
  1. Kyle Whittingham – Utah
    HC Experience in Database: 9 Years
    Average Win%: 69%
    Average Recruiting Class: 47th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: +5.65
    Recruiting Impact: +28.091
    Grade: A+
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Andy Ludwig, C- OC
    Dave Schramm, B OC
    Norm Chow, F- OC
    Brian Johnson, F OC
    Dennis Erickson, B+ OC
    Dave Christensen, A+ OC
    Aaron Roderick, C- OC
    Gary Andersen, A+ DC
    Kalani Sitake, B DC
    John Pease, A+ DC
    Morgan Scalley, A DC

 

“Good Value” Candidates

  1. Scott Satterfield – Appalachian State
    HC Experience in Database: 3 Years
    Average Win%: 71%
    Average Recruiting Class: 113th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: -21.56
    Recruiting Impact: +5.111
    Grade: A+
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Frank Ponce, A OC
    Nate Woody, A+ DC
  1. Bryan Harsin – Boise State
    HC Experience in Database: 4 Years
    Average Win%: 77%
    Average Recruiting Class: 72nd
    Average Roster Talent Difference: +14.84
    Recruiting Impact: +1.567
    Grade: A+
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Mike Sanford Jr, C OC
    Eliah Drinkwitz, B- OC
    Zak Hill, A- OC
    Marcel Yates, C+ DC
    Andy Avalos, A+ DC
  1. PJ Fleck – Western Michigan
    HC Experience in Database: 4 Years
    Average Win%: 58%
    Average Recruiting Class: 73rd
    Average Roster Talent Difference: +4.73
    Recruiting Impact: +42.0
    Grade: B
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades:
    Kirk Ciarrocca, C+ OC
    Ed Pinkham, A+ DC
  1. Jeff Brohm – Western Kentucky
    HC Experience in Database: 3 Years
    Average Win%: 73%
    Average Recruiting Class: 92nd
    Average Roster Talent Difference: -4.51
    Recruiting Impact: +4.940
    Grade: A
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades:
    Tyson Helton, A+ OC
    Nick Holt, B+ DC

 

“Boom or Bust” Candidates

  1. Neal Brown – Troy
    HC Experience in Database: 2 Years
    Average Win%: 61%
    Average Recruiting Class: 105th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: -9.54
    Recruiting Impact: +2.257
    Grade: A-
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Kenny Edenfield, C OC
    Vic Koenning, A DC
  1. Phil Montgomery – Tulsa
    HC Experience in Database: 2 Years
    Average Win%: 58%
    Average Recruiting Class: 96th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: -11.65
    Recruiting Impact: +0.871
    Grade: A
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Sterlin Gilbert, B- OC
    Bill Young, B- DC
  1. Scott Frost – Central Florida
    HC Experience in Database: 1 Year
    Average Win%: 60%
    Average Recruiting Class: 66th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: +6.63
    Recruiting Impact: +16.901
    Grade: C+
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Troy Walters, B OC
    Eric Chinander, D- DC
  1. Dino Babers – Syracuse
    HC Experience in Database: 3 Years
    Average Win%: 56%
    Average Recruiting Class: 86th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: -0.740
    Recruiting Impact: +11.055
    Grade: B
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades
    Sterlin Gilbert, B- OC
    Kim McCloud, F- DC
    Brian Ward, D+ DC

“Wildcard” Candidate

  1. Tom Herman – Houston
    HC Experience in Database: 2 Years
    Average Win%: 86%
    Average Recruiting Class: 66th
    Average Roster Talent Difference: +10.030
    Recruiting Impact: +3.879
    Grade: A+
    Coordinator Hires/Promotion Tree and their performance grades

“Darkhorse” Candidate

  1. Beau Baldwin – Eastern Washington
    No FCS Data in the system for analysis

Want out point of view for your files or assistance in your program HC/OC/DC search?  Call Dave at 971-217-8419 or email us CFBMatrix@gmail.com

 

15 Comments

  1. Doug Mai

    November 25, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    Mike Leach. Thats funny and Tom Herrman should of been your top target period. He and his staff could recruit the Heck out of Texas, California, and keep guys like Truipolutu in the state of Oregon. As far as Moldens concerned we already have 2 DBs that are better and Douglas could surpass them all.

    • Dave Bartoo

      November 29, 2016 at 11:17 am

      Leach has outperformed talent and would be a good transition of current personnel. Herman was never on the radar. Called yes, but coming with the staff no. Ducks had there shot to get Orlando two yrs ago and if they did that, this is still a top 25 team IMO. Hoke and Pellum hires were crushing. Thats why I said if they need status quo, dump some baggage and make a new DC hire asap. The longer times slips the harder it is to convince the fans there is a plan.

  2. Eric L

    November 28, 2016 at 6:32 pm

    Disagree with the assertion they’re 3 years away from competing for a conference championship. With the right coach and coordinator(s) they would compete next year. They have the 2nd best QB in the PAC, a promising young offensive line and some very good receivers and backs. Helfrich is a worse recruiter than Kelly but if you look back quite a few of Kelly’s highly rated guys quit, transferred, turned into busts and so on. Helfrich has had access to more talented personnel than Kelly did.

    • Dave Bartoo

      November 29, 2016 at 11:13 am

      If the names I hear are indication of the new hire, then they will be years away retooling. Hell, I think they didnt need to step back so bad if the decision to hire Pellum and then Hoke didnt occur. They hire Orlando when they had a shot or Wilcox, and at worst, IMO, they are a 7 win team just this year. Recruiting effort needs to be rekindled. I feel the current staff rested on brand pulling kids too much. I happens everywhere, but to get the elite difference makers, the duck staff needs to work harder than other top 20 recruiters.

      • Eric L

        November 30, 2016 at 9:50 pm

        Well, I’m with you there having heard the names that are coming out now. Can’t believe they got rid of Helfrich with no apparent plan of succession. Agree also regarding Pellum – that was part of the cargo cult mentality of “continuity” being the thing that made Oregon good. And then last year they apparently were talking to Mike Nolan and Clancy Pendergast. Either one of those guys might have saved Helfrich’s job but I bet they both wanted to bring their own position coaches with them.

  3. Brian Lake

    November 30, 2016 at 7:08 am

    Hi!
    My first look at the Matrix it’s great I hear you once a week on 1080. Love your weekly updates top notch and it makes the drive home fly by. I would recommend your site to any college football fan. I am very happy today since U of O finally made the call. Hard decision must have been so hard the Athletic D had to hide out rather than be a man. This has not been a great lesson for the players in their search for their education/Degree and growing into being a man and a good citizen. Oh well it’s the most over paid position in higher education market and for a once considered Top notch program that really knocked themselves out in hiring Mark H. When he was hired it should have been the time to replace the “Chipster” with a national research for the best not a local under whelming introvert. This will be a tough job but they should have a “lot of pretenders” wanting the job so please sort it out and get the best.

  4. Kurt Valentine

    November 30, 2016 at 8:03 am

    With the civil war snubbing trip to Columbus made by the pertinent alums its clear that Schiano is a top target. Can you put his career through this to see where it stacks up with some of the afforementioned candidates? Also your thoughts on Lane Kiffin would be greatly appreciated.

    • Dave Bartoo

      November 30, 2016 at 9:45 am

      OK. Schiano would be worse than Kiffin and there is no way Ducks can risk kiffin after the fire he left at USC

  5. Mario Garza

    November 30, 2016 at 8:35 am

    how is Kiffin’s name not even coming up?

    • Dave Bartoo

      November 30, 2016 at 9:46 am

      Oh it is. A lot. Why, I have no idea. He is a great recruiter and really good OC at alabama but has done nothing to warrant a top 20 program.

  6. Paul Craig

    November 30, 2016 at 11:01 am

    Dave,
    Don’t understand why Fleck is #3 in the good value category, yet you seem much higher on him than that in your narrative commentary. Am I missing something?
    Thanks,
    Paul

    • Dave Bartoo

      November 30, 2016 at 11:24 am

      Adam wrote up the good value profiles, so he’ll be logging in later and giving his thoughts on each guy too. I like him as the best of the limited experience guys that have been discussed. I do feel Satterfield has a great staff and he would be my other small G5 pick. For instant continuity, I’d go get Phil Montgomery and find him an elite DC to defend and work with pace offense.

    • Adam McClintock

      December 1, 2016 at 6:38 am

      Paul,
      Don’t look at the list as a ranking. These are merely names in categories that should be called. Fleck and Harsin are pretty close, both are somewhat unknown quantities and have some high risk/high reward tenancies.

  7. Reginald Smith

    December 2, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    Beau Baldwin, even though not proven at the FBS level, can flat out coach. Chip Kelly, who hadn’t even been a head coach, translated immediately because he can coach. As OC he instantly out performed a much more experienced Gary Crowton at Oregon when he replaced him. Baldwin’s teams have won against the OSU Beavers in Corvallis, this year against the WSU Cougars in Pullman, put up 42 points against the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, and dropped 52 points in Seattle against the Washington Huskies against a defense that had 3 first round picks and a fourth guy that went #44. North Dakota State has won five FCS championships in a row and won against five FBS teams in a row and got Wentz drafted at #2 and Baldwin’s team played them on the road this year and had a chance to win the game at the end of regulation but missed a 49 yard field goal and lost in OT by six. He took a kid from McMinville HS in Oregon and dropped 45 in Pullman against a good WSU team. A lot better then Helfrich did in Pullman with superior talent. And oh yeah, Baldwin does have a championship ring, being as how they won it all in 2010. He would need an experienced, proven defensive coordinator from the FBS level. Even though it wouldn’t win the press conference, basketball coach Dana Altman didn’t either, it would win where it matters. Baldwin, like Altman, would be a great choice. They shouldn’t be scared by the lack of experience. He’s actually more accomplished than Chip Kelly at the FCS level. I think he would be a great choice.

    • Dave Bartoo

      December 3, 2016 at 12:13 am

      Honestly RS, I just want Beau to get a P5 shot. Tressel did it, winning a FCS title at Youngstown, why not Baldwin. I thinks it is too high a risk for Rob at the current time, but someone is going to strike gold take him on and soon.

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