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Lucky CFBMatrix Bowl Pick’Ems

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2013-14 Bowl Picks Breakdown & Pool Cheat Sheet – Matrix Style

For the last 7 years I simply posted the bowl picks for the College Football Matrix based solely on the talent rankings.  All games being mostly neutral fields and non-conference match-ups, I didn’t bother to account for the field adjustments or Coaching Effect.  But, I began to see a pattern of Coaching Effect in games that I missed on the winner.  The average year is about 71% correct just using the team with the better talent ranking in my system.

At the risk of over thinking the whole thing, I am added in new elements for readers to consider last year and the straight up picks went 25-10.  With over 5 millions page reads this football season [thank you], there are a lot of you out there.  I hope the new information helps you in your pools and you like what I am posting this bowl season in addition to the White Rabbit Beta Formula Test for score projections.

I will be updating this chart from now until the 15th.  Tweet me or email me with questions or a request for more information to be added.  I appreciate all the readers, followers and subscribers in 2013 and look forward to 2014 and spread the word of the Wide-Angle View of the College Football Matrix.

Happy Holidays and Cheers!
Dave Bartoo

Negative Coach Effect Guys to Watch Out For!

Fedora, UNC -3
Flood, Rutgers -5
Brown, Texas -3
Beemer, VA Tech -2
Pelini, Nebraska -2
Houston -3
Marshall -3
Kelly, Notre Dame -3
Long, SDSU -2

The rest of the bowl teams are either coachless or have a -1 or better mark in Coach Effect for 2013

Note: YTD Coach Effect in () and best CFBMatrix recruiter underlined.  Confidence level on the pick is rated a 1, 2, or 3 with number 1 the highest and 3 the lowest third.

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Colorado State (-1) and Washington State (+4):  Line WSU -3.5 This is an automatic pick for WSU.  AQ vs non-AQ.  No emotional let down as Wazzu in their first bowl since Dewey won.  From a CFBMatrix talent rank this is #87 vs #59 so another feather for WSU.  The Whiterabbit prediction test is worthless here as there is no game to properly compare.  Plus you have a -1 coach effect CSU versus +4 CE Leach.  WINNER: WSU (1)

USC (-3)  and Fresno State (+3): Line USC -5.5  Coach less but talented Trojans vs a very well coached and offensive minded Bulldog team. A nice Boise State Syndrome game of a brand name playing a sub par OOC game in December.  USC should crush them but history says otherwise.  This will be an emotion based pick this week.  WINNER: USC (3)

Buffalo (1) and San Diego State (-2): Line Buffalo -2.5  Now straight up Matrix would go SDSU because they vastly out recruit Buffalo BUT the Bulls coach effect is +2 and SDSU is at -2.  Way far apart this year.  Now, the SDSU -2 is a result in large part of bad kicking as the choked away at least one game vs Fresno.  Bulls at home vs Bulls on the road are also two different animals.  The last 4 games point to SDSU in a close one as well.  WINNER: San Diego State (2)

ULL (0) and Tulane (-1): Line PK: What a mess.  Not a clear path. In the straight talent this is Tulane’s game to lose.  Coach Effect slightly to ULL, but this is a team that just got housed on the road in the conference champ game.  The projection modeling on YTD results is a 4 point win by ULL but Tulane in a better conference so numbers are skewed.  Sticking with what got me here, The Matrix:  WINNER: Tulane (3)

Nebraska (-2) and Georgia (-1):  Line UGA -10: For me, coach effect is a wash.  UGA vastly out recruits Nebraska so that is the automatic lean.  As for the line, everything is clearly favoring UGA to win and the last 4 games efficiency moving average [my favorite] also says cover.  WINNER: Georgia  (1)

Miami (-1) and Louisville (0) Line is Louisville -3.5:  The immediate pick off CFBMatrix talent would be Miami BUT they have Al Golden, which counts for something just not necessarily good.  Miami struggled down the stretch in the worst coached division in college football.  But Louisville played in a glorified non-AQ conference, and the rankings accurately treated them accordingly.  Miami went -3 coaching effect in the last 6 weeks and Louisville has been steady if unimpressive.  Trends, talent and coaching all have effect in the bowls. WINNER: ??? damn it.  *)@#&$%^@*)&$%!@&*($%!@*)%!@$@*) &  Louisville

Ohio (0) and E. Carolina (+2) line ECU -13.5:  Better coach effect, better recruiting and even Vegas has them as a favorite.  Easy. WINNER: ECU (1)

Boise State (-2) and Oregon State (+1) line Boise -2.5:  Better recruiting, better coach effect this year and now BSU lost their head coach.  Another no-brainer: WINNER: BEAVERS (1)

Pitt (-2) and Bowling Green (0): Line is -6 BGSU: WINNER: PITT (2)

Northern Illinois (+3) and Utah State (+4): Line is -1.5 NIU: WINNER : NIU (1)

Marshall (-2)  and Maryland (1): Line -2.5 Marshall: Winner Maryland (2)

Syracuse (+2) and Minnesota (+4): Line -4 Minny: Both teams are going to want this.  Talent about even.  Conferences edge to Syracuse.  Coach Effect edge Minnesota.  Talent Minnesota.  Whiterabbit goes YTD 25-24 Minnesota but last 4 games 31-17 Minn: Winner Minnesota (2)

BYU (+2) and Washington (-2): Line UW -3 – both teams suck on the road.  UW huge talent gap in their favor.  BYU coach effect much better and Sark is out.  Jezzuz.  How do you pick this one?  Whiterabbit says lean BYU. Coach Effect says BYU only talent says UW. Winner:  BYU (3)

Rutgers (-5) and Notre Dame (-3):  Line ND -15.5:  Both these team suck with coach effect.  Awful.  How flood keeps his job I don’t know and Kelly is living off a one hit wonder.   WINNER: Notre Dame (1)

Cincinnati (0) and North Carolina (-3): Line -3 UNC: Dang.  Tough call.  Tubs is bad on the road and Fedora is just plain bad.  Talent edge UNC the rest to Cincinnati.  WINNER: UNC

Michigan (-4) and KState (+3): Line -3 KSU – Well you are not going to get a much bigger gap in coach effect for a single game.  7 is a huge number and immediately says take KSU.  I don’t care how much talent UM has and if this was pre-season I am all over the +3.  But Hoke has run this into the ground especially in the last 4 weeks.  WINNER: KSU (2)

Middle Tenn (+4) and Navy (+2) Line -6.5 Navy: Even coaching, even talent and projection goes to teh White Rabbit beta testing.  All have Navy more efficient year to date and in the last month over MTSU.  Close game IMO. Winner: Navy (2)

Ole Miss (-1) and Georgia Tech (+3): Line OM -3: Even with such a large coach effect gap, I see the talent gap for OM as too much to overcome.  The CE for Freeze is just -1 on the year so he has them playing to expectations.  Georgia Tech in usual fashion is playing way outside their talent.  Talent trumps all. Winner: Ole Miss (1)

Oregon (-1) and Texas (-3): Line -14.5 Oregon.  All the models say Oregon.  But the less I rely on year to date stats and use November numbers the closer the game gets.  Oregon has literally played itself down after the Stanford dreamcrusher game.  I can’t take the UT upset but I will certainly take the cover.  WINNER: Oregon (2)

Texas Tech (0) and Arizona State (+4): Line -13.5:  Talent and coach effect in favor of the Sun Devils.  Nothing to not like here ASU – WINNER ASU (1)

BC (+2) and Arizona (+1) Line Arizona -7: What a kick ass rushing exhibition this should be.  Both RBs dissed by voters for the Heisman.  Both teams with positive coaching effect.  Kicker is CFBMatrix talent.  Arizona has the in a big edge. WINNER: Arizona (2)

Virginia Tech (-2) and UCLA (+1)  Line -7 UCLA – Coaching and talent all strongly favor UCLA.  Tougher schedule and better record.  Not even a question. WINNER UCLA (1)

Miss State (+1) and Rice (+1) – Line MSU -7:  Talent at MSU is so far ahead of Rice this shouldn’t be close.  Rice has played great down the stretch but so has MSU.  The Dawgs beat Arkansas and Ole Miss by 7 and that it what Rice gets?  WTH?  WINNER: Hail State (1)

Duke (+4)  and Texas A&M (0): Line -11.5 A&M – Duke has the great coaching this year but A&M has lost just one game, Mizzou #34, to a team it out recruits under Sumlin/Manziel.  WINNER: A&M (1)

UNLV (0) and North Texas (+3) Line N. Texas -6.5 – UNLV has the talent but lean is N. Texas on coaching and white rabbit game efficiency modeling.  Doesn’t hurt it is a Vegas chalk too. WINNER: North Texas

Wisconsin (+2) and South Carolina (+2): Line Wisconsin -1:  Even coaching on the season but talent far in favor of the Gamecocks.  Spurrier rarely loses to team with less talent.  Easy pick WINNER: South Carolina (1)

Iowa (-1)  and LSU (0): Line -7.5 LSU: Huge talent gap, huge coach effect gap and white rabbit all over LSU in every possible formula.  Duhhhhhhhh  WINNER LSU (1)

Michigan State (+3) and Stanford (0): Line Stanford -4:  Coaching about even.  Maybe game edge to Dantonio.  Big talent edge to Stanford.  Sticking with CFBMatrix talent rankings #11 over #35 WINNER: Stanford (2)

UCF (+6) and Baylor (+2)  Line Baylor -16.5 - What a great year by O’Leary and UCF but their talent is so far away from Baylor and both coach effects positive you can’t go UCF.  Easy pick and Vegas agrees. WINNER: Baylor (1)

Oklahoma (0) and Alabama (0) Line Bama -10.5 Everything I have points to Alabama winning this one.  WINNER: Alabama  (1)

Clemson (-1) and Ohio State (-1): Line OSU -2.5:  Better coaching, better talent and only have the emotional issues to deal with after the B1G title game.  Will being dream crusher hurt tOSU too much?  Don’t know so I’m sticking with what got me here.  Talent, coaching and field.  WINNER: Ohio State (2)

Houston (-3)  and Vanderbilt (+3)  Line -3.5 Vandy – Better coaching and more talent.  Winner winner chicken dinner:  Easy. WINNER: Vanderbilt (1)

Ark State (no HC) and Ball State (+1) Line BSU -9:  Good coaching, ASU lacks a head coach and BSU has better Matrix talent levels.  Easy pick.   WINNER Ball State (1)

Auburn (+1)  and Florida State (+2) Line FSU -8/5: Both elite teams coming into 2013 season and both picked to be in this game.  Coaching even.  Talent edge FSU.  Winner edge FSU.   WINNER: Florida State (2)

 

CFB Maven. National Radio Show Guest. The 1st word on CFB thru The Wide-Angle Lens of CFB. Attrition Analytics Consultant & owner of #UpsetAlert & #PaceOfPlay

2 Comments

  1. Grant Antal

    December 18, 2013 at 7:56 pm

    It looks like you forgot to include the Cotton Bowl…What’s the system play?

    • cfbmatrix

      December 18, 2013 at 8:50 pm

      Thought it was there. CFBMatrix would take OSU with better talent and coaching. However this year coach effect favors Mizzou and the WhiteRabbit beta testing favors Mizzou win as well.

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