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NFL Beta Testing White Rabbit Formulas

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A public profile of formula testing for ATS/Totals in NFL

Finding an edge in ATS, SU and Upset Alerts

Summary: Well the Formula 1.0 testing for CFB games went so well in it’s first public posting (32-10-3 ATS), I thought I would take some time to see if the numbers fit for the NFL in week #3.  It was an odd success going 10-4-1 ATS, 3-2 on recommended totals (those with best odds to win IMO) and 11-4 straight up.

week #4 was no less spectacular going 11-4 straight up and 9-4-1 ATS.  3.0 will be the next adjustment for team efficiency changes on location.

The NFL has a bit of a more level playing field versus college football and with that, I hope we can find some way of looking at games that provides a simple way of projecting results each week.

It’s all fun and games and maybe with enough effort, I can find something in the metrics and trends that makes a difference.

REMEMBER!  THIS IS A TEST!  THIS IS ONLY A TEST! DO NOT FOLLOW!

 

RESULTS

1.0 has been tossed out as 4+ weeks have gone by in the NFL.  A total composite of year to date metrics for efficiency is not keeping up with the other formulas.  3 and 4 week moving averages have proven to be the best to date specifically Formula 4.0 which, in 5 weeks, has gone 10-4-1, 9-4-1, 8-6, 9-6, 6-8.

Here is a brief profile of each game and how I read the numbers for the week.

Week #8 NFL

  • CAR at TAM +4 and 40:
    Score: 19-14 Carolina BUT Tampa does not have it’s starting QB in place (cut Freeman) and CAR does.
    Pick: PASS or take CAR to cover -7.
  • SF at JAX +16.5 and 41:
    Score: 33-16 San Francisco
    Pick: Lean is SF to cover.
    Steele: 30-13 SF to win and cover (consensus Cover by SF)
  • DAL at DET-3 and 51
    Score: 32-31 Dallas
    Pick: UPSET ALERT Dallas to win and cover
    Steele: 30-24 Det to win and cover (consensus Over)
  • NYG at PHI -5.5 and 51.5:
    Score: 28-24 PHI
    Pick: Giants cover the 5.5 but lose in Philly
    Steele: 27-26 Giants (consensus on NYG cover)
  • CLE at KC -7.5 and 39.5:
    Score: 22-16 KC
    Pick: This is right on the Vegas numbers.  RIGHT on it. If CLE healthy take points, if not take KC.  Campbell in Weeden out for CLE.  Avoid CLE.  Only play is KC to cover IMO
    Steele: 20-14 KC (consensus on cover and Under)
  • BUF at NO -11 and 48.5:
    Score: 31-17 New Orleans
    Pick: PASS (if Graham not healthy and -11 w/out everyone ready to go is dangerous IMO)
    Steele: 31-17 New Orleans (consensus on NO cover)
  • MIA at NE -6.5 and 45:
    Score: 20-18 New England
    Pick: Miami to cover (make sure Tannehill is healthy and playing if not pass)
    Steele: 30-21 NE (Consensus disagree on everything in this game)
  • NYJ at CIN -6.5 and 41
    Score: 27-21 Cincinnati
    Pick: Pass (lean is CIN to cover but I don’t like this projection)
    Steele: 23-16 Cincinnati (Consensus CIN cover and Over)
  • PIT at OAK +3 and 40:
    Score: 17-16 Oakland
    Pick: Upset Alert Oakland to Win and Cover
    Steele: 23-17 Pittsburgh (consensus Under)
  • WAS at DEN -11.5 and 58.5:
    Score: 28-24 Denver
    Pick: Washington to cover. Hmmmm I did not expect that but?
    Steele: 38-24 Denver (Consensus disagree)
  • ATL at ARI -2.5 and 45:
    Score: 25-19 Arizona
    Pick: Arizona to cover
    Steele: 24-23 Arizona (consensus ARI to cover and win)
  • GB at MIN +7 and 49
    Score: 23-17 Green Bay
    Pick: PASS the projection. Personally I lean to GB because 6 point game projection and MIN QB a mess
    Steele: 24-17 Green Bay (Complete consensus)
  • SEA at STL +11 and 42.5
    Score: 26-24 SEA
    Pick: PASS!  STL QB out.  Forget this game IMO

My S&G Card:

  1. SF +15
  2. DAL +3
  3. DAL +140
  4. O51 Dal/Det
  5. NYG +5
  6. CLE +7 Scratch due to Weeden out
  7. NO -10.5
  8. MIA +5.5
  9. MIA/NE Under 46
  10. NYJ/CIN Over 41
  11. Oak +2.5
  12. OAK +120
  13. OAK/PIT Under 40.5
  14. WAS +10
  15. ARI -2.5
  16. GB -7

CFB Maven. National Radio Show Guest. The 1st word on CFB thru The Wide-Angle Lens of CFB. Attrition Analytics Consultant & owner of #UpsetAlert & #PaceOfPlay

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