NFL Beta Testing White Rabbit Formulas
A public profile of formula testing for ATS/Totals in NFL
Finding an edge in ATS, SU and Upset Alerts
Summary: Well the Formula 1.0 testing for CFB games went so well in it’s first public posting (32-10-3 ATS), I thought I would take some time to see if the numbers fit for the NFL in week #3. It was an odd success going 10-4-1 ATS, 3-2 on recommended totals (those with best odds to win IMO) and 11-4 straight up.
week #4 was no less spectacular going 11-4 straight up and 9-4-1 ATS. 3.0 will be the next adjustment for team efficiency changes on location.
The NFL has a bit of a more level playing field versus college football and with that, I hope we can find some way of looking at games that provides a simple way of projecting results each week.
It’s all fun and games and maybe with enough effort, I can find something in the metrics and trends that makes a difference.
REMEMBER! THIS IS A TEST! THIS IS ONLY A TEST! DO NOT FOLLOW!
1.0 has been tossed out as 4+ weeks have gone by in the NFL. A total composite of year to date metrics for efficiency is not keeping up with the other formulas. 3 and 4 week moving averages have proven to be the best to date specifically Formula 4.0 which, in 5 weeks, has gone 10-4-1, 9-4-1, 8-6, 9-6, 6-8.
Here is a brief profile of each game and how I read the numbers for the week.
Week #8 NFL
- CAR at TAM +4 and 40:
Score: 19-14 Carolina BUT Tampa does not have it’s starting QB in place (cut Freeman) and CAR does.
Pick: PASS or take CAR to cover -7.
- SF at JAX +16.5 and 41:
Score: 33-16 San Francisco
Pick: Lean is SF to cover.
Steele: 30-13 SF to win and cover (consensus Cover by SF)
- DAL at DET-3 and 51
Score: 32-31 Dallas
Pick: UPSET ALERT Dallas to win and cover
Steele: 30-24 Det to win and cover (consensus Over)
- NYG at PHI -5.5 and 51.5:
Score: 28-24 PHI
Pick: Giants cover the 5.5 but lose in Philly
Steele: 27-26 Giants (consensus on NYG cover)
- CLE at KC -7.5 and 39.5:
Score: 22-16 KC
Pick: This is right on the Vegas numbers. RIGHT on it. If CLE healthy take points, if not take KC. Campbell in Weeden out for CLE. Avoid CLE. Only play is KC to cover IMO
Steele: 20-14 KC (consensus on cover and Under)
- BUF at NO -11 and 48.5:
Score: 31-17 New Orleans
Pick: PASS (if Graham not healthy and -11 w/out everyone ready to go is dangerous IMO)
Steele: 31-17 New Orleans (consensus on NO cover)
- MIA at NE -6.5 and 45:
Score: 20-18 New England
Pick: Miami to cover (make sure Tannehill is healthy and playing if not pass)
Steele: 30-21 NE (Consensus disagree on everything in this game)
- NYJ at CIN -6.5 and 41
Score: 27-21 Cincinnati
Pick: Pass (lean is CIN to cover but I don’t like this projection)
Steele: 23-16 Cincinnati (Consensus CIN cover and Over)
- PIT at OAK +3 and 40:
Score: 17-16 Oakland
Pick: Upset Alert Oakland to Win and Cover
Steele: 23-17 Pittsburgh (consensus Under)
- WAS at DEN -11.5 and 58.5:
Score: 28-24 Denver
Pick: Washington to cover. Hmmmm I did not expect that but?
Steele: 38-24 Denver (Consensus disagree)
- ATL at ARI -2.5 and 45:
Score: 25-19 Arizona
Pick: Arizona to cover
Steele: 24-23 Arizona (consensus ARI to cover and win)
- GB at MIN +7 and 49
Score: 23-17 Green Bay
Pick: PASS the projection. Personally I lean to GB because 6 point game projection and MIN QB a mess
Steele: 24-17 Green Bay (Complete consensus)
- SEA at STL +11 and 42.5
Score: 26-24 SEA
Pick: PASS! STL QB out. Forget this game IMO
My S&G Card:
- SF +15
- DAL +3
- DAL +140
- O51 Dal/Det
- NYG +5
CLE +7Scratch due to Weeden out
- NO -10.5
- MIA +5.5
- MIA/NE Under 46
- NYJ/CIN Over 41
- Oak +2.5
- OAK +120
- OAK/PIT Under 40.5
- WAS +10
- ARI -2.5
- GB -7