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More Pace of Play Food for Thought

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More Pace of Play Stats

Not a Conclusion, but Rather a Counter Point to the Rules Committee Fire, Aim, Ready Mentality

By Dave BARTOO
@CFBMatrix dave@cfbmatrix.com2|13|2014

Since the release of the article on 2012 pace of play and starts lost to injury article, it has been read over 100k times.   I have fielded a bundle of questions and requests for more information.   I am working on a 5 year profile update of the Pace of Play stats.

Keep in mind that this does not replace the work that needs to be done to verify or refute the request of Mr. Saban, Mr. Bielema and the NCAA Rules Committee but rather gives you the fans another point of view to the question of ‘player safety’ and injury risk from hurry up, no huddle (HUNH) offenses.

Click & Read The CFBMatrix Pace of Play Summary Report

)))Listen with me!!!  You can find the AUDIO portion of this summary report in the Matrix Casts in the Menu above.  I walk you through my thoughts page by page in the Summary.

If they are correct in their assertion, then if the true interest of player injury risk due to fatigue should we not put greater controls on practice and weight room fatigue?  Game fatigue and reduce the schedule?  Injury risk by restricting all injured players from taking the field in a game?  This is a road to nowhere and in my opinion the initial numbers point to size and speed being the ultimate tool for creating injuries in players.

Here are some bits and bites for your consumption:

  • Fastest POP conference (Big 5) from 2009-2012 was the Big 12.  Starts lost to injury – Defense: 278  Offense: 317.
  • From 2010 – 2012 Coach Saban’s Alabama teams and Coach Bielema’s Wisconsin teams were both in the bottom 10 of plays per game generated on offense and faced on defense.  They lost a combined 95 starts to injury.  44 of those, less than half, were on the defense.
  • One of the fastest teams, Oregon, from 2009-2012 lost 53 starts to injury on defense and only 18 starts on offense.  What if the HUNH helped reduce injury to offensive players at a rate greater than the assumed rated of increased injury to the defensive players?
  • From 2010-2012 Alabama lost a total of 30 starts to injury.  21 of those were to their bottom 5 pace of play offense.  Their 9 games lost to injury in 3 years was the lowest total in AQ football on a defense.  The other 5 teams in the SEC West, that all played against the huge, physical and slow paced Alabama offense averaged 25.2 starts lost to injury over the same time period.
  • In his last 3 years at Wisconsin, Coach Bielema’s bottom 5 pace of play offense suffered 38 starts lost to injury.  His defense?  39.
  • From 2009-2012 the national rate of starts lost per play was, in order, 0.0184, 0.0199. 0.0233 and 0.0193.
  • Injuries to the offense led injuries to the defense in 2 of 4 years.
  • Starts lost to injury from 2009-2012 in FBS FB were 4,898 Offense and 4,795 defense.
  • 2011 had the highest number of plays and thus the highest number of starts lost to injury.
  • In 2012, there were approximately 3,400 more plays run than in 2010, but fewer starts lost to injury as well.
  • In 2012, plays were down about 1,600 (1.42%) but starts lost to injury were down 19.5% and injuries per play were down 19.4%.
  • From 2009-2012 the Big 5 conferences that faced the fewest plays from slowest to fastest, were also ranked the same in starts missed per play.  #1 = the SEC.  Slowest pace on offense and defense and highest injury rate of starts lost per snap.
  • In the big 5 conferences from 2009-2012, 1 start on D was lost to injury every 99 snaps. In the SEC it was once per 88. Big 12 was once per 154
  • If each team from the Big 5 conference lost just ONE! starter in the  preseason to a season ending injury from ’09-’12 it would account for 61% of all starts lost to injury in this period.
  • From 2009-2012 the Big 12 teams averaged more snaps played on offense and on defense than any other conference.  They had the fewest starts lost to injury on both offense and on defense as well as the lowest injury rate per play on offense and defense.
  • From 2009-2010 an SEC team played in an average of 162 snaps per game.  In 2011-2012 the average dropped to 160.  In spite of the slower pace, SEC teams lost 184 more starts to injury from 2011-2012 than they did in 2009-2010.  55% of the ’11-’12 starts lost were on offense.
  • From 2009-2012 the number of plays per team faced per game ranked as follows: #1: SEC 161.3 PPP, #2 Big Ten, #3 ACC, #4 PAC12, #5 Big12.   AND in a comparison, the conference ranking by starts lost to injury per play #1 SEC .0114, #2 Big Ten, #3 ACC, #4 PAC12, #5 Big 12.  Not conclusive but how do you feel about the new 10 second run off rule?

Information and Stats from ESPN, CBS Sports, NCAA.c0m teamrankings.com, cfbstats.com and PilSteele.com

CFB Maven. National Radio Show Guest. The 1st word on CFB thru The Wide-Angle Lens of CFB. Attrition Analytics Consultant & owner of #UpsetAlert & #PaceOfPlay

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