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Playoff Committee Unofficial SOS Ranks – Week 10

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True Playoff Committee SOS Rankings

Games played through week 10, 2016


Extras: The BS of SOS (Click here) and the results of SOS rankings in Bowls (Click)

The Playoff Committee noted, last year, that they use their SOS to rank teams.  It is not any of the public SOS ranks fans and writers frequently reference. The committee, as it turns out, states they do not use an SOS ranking.  They just call winning percentage averaging an SOS ranking.

Noted Selection Committee expert, Stewart Mandel tweeted out the following (see below) about the committee’s ‘SOS rankings’.  This is basically an in-season version of the commonly referred to NCAA pre-season strength of schedule rankings.  The committee takes it a step further and considers the winning percentage of the opponents of a team’s opponents on their schedule.   An example of this, for Auburn. is in the little chart to the right.

Stewart further advised me that for FCS teams, only the loses count against the composite opponent record.  So if LSU played McNeese State (8-0), only the losses are added to the composite record of opponents for LSU (more on this later). So if you end up beating an FCS team that goes 11-1, you are only dinged for the one loss by that FCS opponent.

I have not been able to determine, and thus assume it counts as nothing, the strength of home versus the road. In the Big 12, the PAC 12 and soon to be in the Big Ten and ACC, some teams have five home conference games, while the other half have five road conference games.  That is a significant difference in schedule strength.

To create the ‘SOS’ ranking,we averaged the records of the opponents into the records of the opponents opponents to get the composite.  All three are broken down and ranked below into opponents record, opponents opponents record and the average of the two records.

Thru Week 10 Selection Committee Estimated SOS Ranks

My note:  Even though the committee does not account for a 13th game in a conference championship, playing another tough game by all but the Big 12 adds significant weight to a team SOS.  A good example is Vegas odds. The ACC game may be a pick’em by kick off.  A game at PK has 50/50 odds for either team winning and that would effectively double the strength of schedule if viewed through Vegas odds.  Whatever.  This is what the committee advised it uses for SOS so take it as you want.

CASE STUDY: LSU:  The Tigers played at Syracuse and cancelled the game with McNeese State.  In the PoComm formula, the Syracuse winning percentage and the winning percentage of the Syracuse opponent counts towards the SOS ranking of LSU.  If the Tiger played McNeese State, the hit to the LSU SOS would be the losses by McNesse State.  If the situation was reversed, with the Syracuse game cancelled and LSU beating McNeese State, the Tigers SOS ranking would GO UP from no. 46 to no. 37.  Kind of makes me giggle.

Like it or not, this is exactly how the formula was spelled out to me.

SEE HOW ACCURATELY THESE RANKINGS PLAYED OUT IN OUR WEEK 10 ADVANCED SELECTION COMMITTEE RANKING PROJECTIONS FORMULA

[click on image to enlarge]

1 Tennessee
2 Oregon St
3 Florida St
4 Ole Miss
5 Penn St
6 Illinois
7 Clemson
8 Wisconsin
9 Alabama
10 Rutgers
11 Arkansas
12 USC
13 Arizona
14 Missouri
15 Auburn
16 N. Illinois
17 Texas A&M
18 Vanderbilt
19 Bowling Green
20 Oregon
21 Stanford
22 UCLA
23 Ohio St
24 Northwestern
25 SMU
26 Pittsburgh
27 New Mexico St
28 Rice
29 Colorado St
30 BYU
31 N.C. State
32 Michigan St
33 California
34 Kentucky
35 Georgia Tech
36 Indiana
37 Syracuse
38 Temple
39 Virginia
40 Virginia Tech
41 Idaho
42 Georgia
43 Colorado
44 Texas Tech
45 C. Florida
46 Utah St
47 Boise St
48 Washington St
49 South Carolina
50 ULM
51 UConn
52 Georgia St
53 Tulsa
54 Kansas
55 Michigan
56 Mississippi St
57 LSU
58 Kent St
59 Duke
60 North Carolina
61 Boston College
62 Tulane
63 Navy
64 Miami
65 Arizona St
66 Arkansas St
67 Appalachian St
68 Purdue
69 Georgia Southern
70 Iowa St
71 Oklahoma
72 Texas
73 Louisville
74 Houston
75 Wyoming
76 UTEP
77 Fresno St
78 ECU
79 Nebraska
80 UMass
81 Cincinnati
82 Florida
83 W. Kentucky
84 West Virginia
85 Utah
86 S. Alabama
87 ULL
88 South Florida
89 Oklahoma St
90 Miami (OH)
91 Marshall
92 Akron
93 Minnesota
94 Notre Dame
95 TCU
96 Troy
97 E. Michigan
98 San Jose St
99 W. Michigan
100 C. Michigan
101 Wake Forest
102 N. Texas
103 Kansas St
104 Iowa
105 FIU
106 Maryland
107 Memphis
108 Hawaii
109 Washington
110 UNLV
111 Texas St
112 Charlotte
113 Old Dominion
114 Southern Miss
115 Middle Tenn. St.
116 Air Force
117 Toledo
118 UTSA
119 Buffalo
120 Louisiana Tech
121 New Mexico
122 FAU
123 Ohio
124 Nevada
125 Army
126 San Diego St
127 Baylor
128 Ball State

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