2012 ACC Conference
If there is one bad thing about having a simple system for fans to understand that relies solely on adjusted recruiting, schedule and coaching is a conference whose elite teams have bad or really bad coaching over several years. The only conference that is less than 75.1% accurate on predicting games and record outcomes in the last 3 years is the ACC. But, the numbers are the numbers and as soon as Miami, Florida State and North Carolina final perform to their talent not only will the CFB Matrix be more accurate, the conference will get more respect and in my opinion respect that is deserved. So here’s to hoping that I can final get them in a 80%+ correct year. Or not if you don’t like how it was modeled.
Let’s get this out of the way. Duke is simply one of the worst programs in AQ football. It doesn’t win, can’t recruit and develops no talent. Only way they get out of 6th in the division in the near future is if the ACC expands or contracts. The 3,4,5 teams of Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia are all in a 4-5 conference win range. While Miami has better talent in the Matrix but Tech and Virginia have superior coaching. Miami could easily be a dark horse in the conference, but their recruiting ranking has been adjusted down significantly in the last 4 years. Those three will play and interesting round robin for the 3-5 slots in the Coastal division. But I know you ready this to get to this point and why the hell the Matrix has North Carolina plugged in to tie with Virginia Tech for the #1 slot in the ACC Coastal. Because despite Coach Fedora being a huge under perform on the field (great recruiter), I am hoping he is not three times worse than the national average first year coach. UNC is one of just 7 teams in the country to out recruit every team on it’s schedule. The other 6 are all national champ contenders! This is as easy a schedule the Tarheels may ever see. While Fedora was a -3 game coach his first 3 years (-1 the last) a 9 win season for UNC is a disaster in the Matrix. Coin flip on the game but the bad news is the host the Hokies. If you are going to beat Beemer and company you need to play in Blacksburg. The Hokies are wicked tough the last 5 years on the road. That is why they win the tie breaker for division champ over UNC but will go to the ACC Champ game regardless.
This side of the ACC is a lot more boring. There are the bottom 4 and then Clemson and Florida State. The Seminoles should smoke their schedule and go 8-0. Period. Coach Fisher has been down the first two years and needs to make this talent pay off like a real elite team. When you go every year out recruiting people you need to win games like Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, USC (before their coaching/sanction transition). I will always maintain a team like FSU with their level of talent going 9-3 or worse is a wasted opportunity for a big run. Noles and Fisher win 11 games. 2012. Now. Clemson should be no worse than #2 in the Atlantic and a top 20 team at 9-3. The bottom 4 are somewhat of a crap shoot. Maryland and North Carolina State have fairly even talent but Edsell was off bad last year and O’Brien is a win/loss roller coaster. Wake Forest does not have their talent but the performance trends of Coach Grobe makes him one of the top game effect coaches in the country. His ability coupled with the lack of distance in talent between Wake with Maryland and NC State puts them in 3rd in 2012. Boston College is in the cellar for the Atlantic. Recruiting is plummeting and schedule is one of the toughest as BC has the 2nd worst SPG in the division. They will be bottom half of the Atlantic for a few more years.
Coastal Champ Rep: Virginia Tech Hokies
Atlantic Champ Rep: Florida State Seminoles
ACC BCS (and would be playoff rep) Florida State