Alabama Crimson Tide
As the team with the #1 ranked adjusted recruiting class for the Crimson Tide is has immediate expectations for a 12-0 season and a run into the National Championship Game. As I showed in the returning starters Matrix, elite teams like Bama truly do ‘reload’ and the numbers matter little for these teams. Since Coach Saban took over, Alabama has increased it’s average recruiting class (%), more than any other team in FBS and the wins are clearly on the same uptrend path. As long as CNS keeps them in the top 10-15 in national adjusted recruiting rank (FARR) the Tide will deservedly have undefeated season and NCG expectations. While constantly having 10+ wins each year is against the odds, anything else is should be a down season for ‘Bama fans.
2012 Team and Coaching Profile
What is there really to say about the Alabama team profile. #1 class composite class of 2012, the #1 four year Matrix adjusted recruiting class and #1 national FARR (field adjusted recruiting rank). This team has assumed the power level of the USC Trojans teams of the first decade of 2000.
What does not hurt this team’s talent, like some other top talent programs, is the coaching level of Saban. Since he rarely gets a chance to pull off a + game effect upset, his +3 games total in his tenure at ‘Bama is quite remarkable. It is one of the top numbers for an ‘elite’ recruiter coach and he has effectively wiped out home field adjustments in the SEC.
The CFBMatrix has a stadium adjustment (FARR) built into each team. Most teams have some kind of home field strength, but the Matrix is more accurate with Alabama when that number is zeroed out when they host the Tide. In fact, the odds of a road loss under Saban are less than a home loss. Sounds funny, but if Alabama is going to be beat in 2012, it will most likely happen in Tuscaloosa.
2012 Crimson Tide Schedule
On the average, the CFBMatrix has missed 2 games per year for predicting the outcomes of every Bama game in the last 5 years. The games to focus on for an upset are home games against tougher opponents.
The most likely is right out of the gate with Michigan. If they win that game as predicted, they should cruise to the middle of October vs. the Vols. Don’t kid yourself on Tennessee. Dooley is a cornered cat and a top 5 hot seat coach in the Matrix coming into 2012. While he has never beaten a team I have picked him to loose against, even blind squirrels find nuts and they have talent. However, the best odds for an upset at the end of the season will be hosting the Aggies and Auburn. The Matrix took Bama over LSU due to the Tide’s road power, but an LSU win is no upset. 12-0 is in the cards, but odds favor one loss somewhere in 2012.
The Crimson Tide have just the 8th toughest total SOS in the SEC and trail only Auburn for the biggest SPG (Sked Power Gap). This team is elite in every metric and anything less than 10 wins in 2012 is a disappointment and outside the odds and trends of Alabama.
|SOS Rank||SPG Rank||SOS #||SPG #|
SOS = Strength of Schedule = Ave field adjusted recruiting rank (#FARR) of all teams played. The smaller the SOS #, the tougher the schedule.
SPG = Schedule Power Gap is SOS minus the FARR ranking of the team. The smaller the SPG # the more likely the team is to win more games with average coaching versus teams with larger SPGs.