Big 12 – 2012
2012 BIG 12 Conference
2012 will mark the return of the status quo in the Big12 with the #1 team being the Sooners and Texas in the #2 spot. With the loss of A&M the conference becomes four sided sided. Two elite recruiters, 5 very even talented teams, two over coached and under talented and Kansas. I understand why they have the 9 team schedule much more than the PAC12, but they may hurt themselves in the national picture of emotional rankings. That extra conference game could be the difference betwee 8-4 outside the top 25 and 9-3 and having 4-6 teams in the top 25. Same teams, same talent but records not talent or SOS drives all rankings human or computer.
There is a reason the CFBMatrix has the original anti-coach of the year named after Charlie Weis so don’t think for a second the CFBMatrix sees any schematic advantage at KU in 2012 or any time soon. Kansas is in that Duke, Indiana, Temple group of each win should be celebrated. Iowa State has a very good and dangerous coach but they will serve only to upset dreams of conference foes while hoping to get to bowl eligible. Texas Tech has the talent, but something is wrong in Lubbock. Tuberville has been a coach effect -2 game coach for 2 straight years. A third year of the same, which usually happens means he is out. 7-5 and 4-5 is 8th and time for a change.
After the bottom 3, the next 5 is a mess. Kansas State, while annually undertalented, is also annually over coached more than any other AQ school. While the first pass project 3 wins for KSU, Snyder has gone less than +4 game against the Matrix just once. Baylor is projected to 8-4 but the best number was 7.5. The Briles coach effect in the Matrix bumped it to 8 wins, but they are with KSU at 8 looking at 7. 8 with 8.5 the best number is for TCU and West Virginia. Holgerson was just OK in 2011. While the Mountaineers hit the project CFBMatrix win total on last year, they could have been better. I am not seeing a coach effect upgrade until after this year plays out. Patterson was wicked good in his previous conference and rarely lost to teams that he out recruited. The big question is can he go ‘Snyder’ with more talent and get to 8-9+ wins before the replaces Mack at Texas next year. That’s right, 9 wins and a conference tie for 2nd is not good enough in Austin. The worst coach effect over the last 2 years in AQ football doesn’t just turn it on and start winning. Or does he? My odds say no, but the Longhorns can still go for 11-12 every year as they have as much talent as anyone in the country. The Cowboys are a concern for me. Gundy makes a living winning road games and he is already projected to win most of them and over the last 4 years, the Matrix has been dead on exact with his total home wins. The last team, the Sooners are like a rock in the CFBMatrix projections. Off never more than +/- 1 game for the last 5 years I am really confident in the Sooners in 2012 as they were projected at 11. Anything less than 10 is a surprise and waste of a season in Norman.
- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix & your Anti-Homer Follow @cfbmatrix