#3 in the country.  That is the composite recruiting ranking for the Gators over the last 4 years.   When your team is in the top 10 of the CFBMatrix adjusted 4 year recruiting rank composite the first thought should be National Championship game.  Not, how many close ones are we going to lose this year?  There is no more room in my opinion for Muschamp and his staff.  6-7 wins with NCG talent is a quick way to get run out of town.  While the loses last year for the Gators were to elite recruiters as well, there come a time that a coach needs to step up with his talent and win a few of those tough battle.  As long as Muschamp keeps tteh Gators in the top 10 in national adjusted recruiting rank (FARR) they should deservedly have undefeated season and NCG expectations.  The trends of winning shows it takes time to bounce back from a down cycle so this isn’t an overnight recovery.  However, the bar needs to be moving up not down with expectations for this kind of talent on campus.

2012 Team and Coaching Profile

What a terrible first year, or was it?  While Coach Muschamp and his staff had a bad -4 game effect in 2012, the loses were all to teams in the top 15 of the CFBMatrix 4 year recruiting rank.   Last year the Gators played 6 of those teams, this year 4.  In my opinion, that is two more wins right there.  The big question is can they beat one or two of those ‘teams’ they lost to in 2011?  If so, then you start talking 9-3, 10-2……you know where you should be Gator Nation.

18 guys returning as starters and the BIG number in the SEC is defense and they get back 10.  I have already shown that returning starters don’t really mean much to the overall record, but 10+ back on defense should make a difference.  On average, that should boost the record by a half game or so.  That is why for me the simple Matrix numbers like 8.5 wins in 2012.

2012 Florida Gators Schedule

The first 4 weeks should go 1,2,3,4 wins.  The game at A&M is a huge one for both programs.  This is a game the 2011 Gators would lose.  This year they should win it and at Tennessee and will be 4-0 and top 25 going into the bye week. But this is still a negative game effect staff so I say 3-1 into the bye.

The start the second half of the season is a loss to LSU followed by wins over Vandy and South Carolina.  The Bulldogs fit the profile of the team’s Florida lost to in 2011, so that game should go the way of UGA and put the Gators at 6-3.  Two OoC cupcakes makes them 7-3 then 8-3 before traveling to the panhandle to get beat by the Seminoles.  8-4 in 2012 but the promise of the season and the second easiest SEC SOS with the best schedule power gap holds so much more potential for Gator fans.

SOS = Strength of Schedule = Ave field adjusted recruiting rank (#FARR) of all teams played. The smaller the SOS #, the tougher the schedule.
SPG = Schedule Power Gap is SOS minus the FARR ranking of the team.  The smaller the SPG # the more likely the team is to win more games with average coaching versus teams with larger SPGs.

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