The good news for you crazy Hawks fans is that the talent trend is starting to turn back up after the down years of 2007-2008.  The ’10 and ’12 college football recruiting cycles were average years for Iowa with a nice top 30 class in 2011.  These are important numbers for the Hawkeyes as Ferentz and his staff have beaten just 6 teams in the last 5 years that had a higher field adjusted recruiting ranking in the College Football Matrix.

2012 Hawkeye Team and Coaching Profile

As noted above, recruiting is trending up but the 2012 cycle was right in line with the very important adjusted 4 year average ranking.  No real bump in talent is no real bump in expected wins.

As we have already shown here Returning Starters is just not that important of a overall stat.  The two numbers that are found to be most important in the Big Ten is getting back over 7 on O and both kickers.  For the Hawkeyes,  those numbers are a wash for 2012.

2011 was the 4th of the last 5 years that Ferentz and staff have been under the CFBMatrix win total predictions.  Those trends landed him a spot on the 2 star hot seat list for 2012. Not good, not bad but under performing at a rate of -1 game net effect per year.  This coaching trend and recruiting trend paint the picture of a program happy to be treading water.

2012 Schedule Breakdown

Win. Win. Win. Win. Win.  That is the must have first five games of the Hawkeye 2012 football schedule.  I did note the game at Iowa State in 2011 was a prime upset special but the Hawks must bounce back and take care of business at home.  The rest of the first five out of conference and Big Ten games are must wins for a good season.

The bye in week 6 will be great timing to gather for the Big Ten conference run.  In the Matrix, Ferentz and staff are most vulnerable on the road to upset.  At home they give what they take and perform as expected each year.  I don’t see any real trap games in the second half of the season.  Purdue at home in November could be one but it is a home game.

Coming out of the bye and going on the road to Michigan State is really tough.  Dantonio has lost just one game in 4 years that the Matrix predicted a win.  No reason to swim against that current.  But fans will point to a trap game for MSU as the Wolverines come to town the next week.

What was a predicted loss, now makes the Hawkeyes a potential top 25 team.   While talent wise, they are not top 25, we have already proven that it is all about wins.  Looking back after the season, the game with Penn State  could be that much needed 9th win to get into the top 25.  They are now 6-1 and in the top 25.

Iowa gets a break going on the road to Northwestern and reducing the odds of an upset loss significantly.  If there is a game for Ferentz and Co. to blow it on, this is it.  Against a good coach and on the road.  Upset special. Purdue and Indiana should be lock wins on any field.   There is an upset here somewhere and they go to 8-2 with two to play.

I am confident in the trends and odds at Iowa for the predictions with  Michigan and Nebraska .   Michigan is just too good to pick against them in Ann Arbor.   Pelini, a negative game coach like Ferentz, has enough talent and stability to win in week 13.  In the end I see 9-3  potential and a 8-4 result.

- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix & your Anti-Homer Follow @cfbmatrix