With a 4 year College Football Matrix adjusted composite recruiting rank of #30 in 2006, the Ducks have done what so few have been able to do and break out of  range bound recruiting.  Since 2010 the Oregon Ducks have been above the national CFBMatrix talent ranking line that 21 of the last 22 players in the BCS National Title Game have exceeded in the year they played for the title.  There is still a lot of upward room as the Ducks are not to the elite level of being a favorite if they get into the title game.  Better talent and better player development are the key areas of improvement if Ducks fans really want to see a potential national title.

2012 Team and Coaching Profile

In spite of a slight downturn in recruited talent in 2012, the Ducks 4 year adjusted composite class rank moved up to #14.  While semi-elite, this number is good enough to beat most of the PAC12 at home.  Once above #10, they can really expect to have a chance at winning one or more playoff games in the future.

Returning starters on Offense in the PAC12 does not mean a whole lot and neither does returning QBs.  The Ducks get over half their D and both kickers back.  These are two every positive numbers and could be a real key in more close games in 2012.

One of the best qualities Coach Kelly has is that he wins when he is supposed to win.  In the 33 games he has been picked to win as the Duck head coach when he has a high stadium adjusted talent ranking, he is 31-2.   With less talent, he is about .500.  He is a plus game coach and adds about a .5 game a year or more to the Ducks final record

2012 Ducks Schedule Breakdown

Blow out. Win. Blow out. Win. Win. Win. Win.  At 31-2 versus teams with less talent, the first 6 games for Oregon should all be wins.  I am not buying the Leach theories of expected greatness.  Washington has talent, but Sarkisian’s teams are weak on the road, will be coming of hosting Stanford and looking forward past the Ducks to playing USC at home October 13.

The second half of the schedule is much tougher after wins over Arizona State and Colorado.  The last 4 games are tough and start with a loss at USC.  I expect the Ducks to play USC again for the conference title and expect them to bounce back and win.  It may go the other way, but with Coach Kelly’s plus rating and Kiffin’s minus rating, I expect the 2 games to be split.  Cal on the road could be tough and a trap game as the Ducks host Stanford the following week.  The same team that will beat them for the PAC12 South title in 2013.  They finish with a Beaver team that will be bowl eligible by the Civil War and trying to play spoiler.  I don’t see worse than 10-2 given the coaching and talent trends.  11-1 is the most likely number but the schedule is very good for a potential 12-0 run.   I’ll stick with 12-1 overall and picked up by a BCS bowl somewhere.

- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix  Follow @cfbmatrix email dave@cfbmatrix.com

Sports Bettors: You want the best CFBMatrix odds on win totals for 2012, ML plays, teams to avoid, the best ATS Matrix odds then get the details of the CFBMatrix system beyond this page. Find it in Best Bets #WINNING

Hey Duck Fans!  You need season tickets for 2012?  I have extras this year.  Section 9 right next to section 10 on the 30 about 2/3 down from the top.  Email me dave@cfbmatrix.com to inquire.  I can go full season, half season, even individual game tickets at my cost.