2012 Team Recruiting Rankings
2012 Team Composite Recruiting Rankings
The CFBMatrix Composite Recruiting Rank (#RR) is the base for all calculations and profiling of schedules, coaching and expected results. We do not use any one data set from what is readily available to all fans. We use our Composite Team Recruiting Rankings (not our ‘formula’ using everyone’s analysis) which have been proven to be far more accurate in predictions and is adjusted over 4 years for early loses to recruiting classes.
I have developed a system that uses all available sources for team ranking. I discovered that there can be biases in recruiting rankings toward or against teams and conferences. These biases are hard to find and change as evaluators and focus changes in each system. Every year since 2005, every public ranking available was tested to determine if any one of them was a superior system. There is no one superior ranking system for the CFBMatrix, although some rankings are no longer used as they drag down predictions, so the Composite Recruiting Ranking was developed. It uses all available information to create a team rank that is less biased and strengthens our recruiting based modeling.
The pages linked to this section are a based in the recruiting rankings for the most recent recruiting cycle (2012), the year over year rank trend (2011-2012) and the 4 year composite team ranking (2009-2012). You can find this detail of recruiting information nowhere else on the web.
I am an MSU fan, now I am a little confused by what your rankings are telling me, is there any way you may be able to put this in easier terms for me? lol I am VERY interested in this stuff and would really like to understand it, I am just having a hard time doing so. Such as the “Gains vs 4 year national ranking” and MSU has a -8… I am trying hard to understand it but having a difficult time. Much appreciated if you respond, thanks.
Danny – I know. Lots of numbers…everywhere. But be patient it all connects and means something to every team. That stat “Gains vs. 4 Yr Ranking” reflects the most recent national recruiting rank of the MSU class of 2012 in comparison to the last 4 years. A -8 means it is 8 spots under the previous 4 year average. So if the average was 34 then this year the class was ranked 42. To build a stronger program, you want to see those numbers being positive. -8 is not bad nor good. Tells me your program is running in place with talent or declining. With the last 5 classes of 52, 27, 34, 29, 39 I would say running in place. Trouble maker and division contender when Michigan doesn’t have it together. Low odds of conf. champ when OSU ramps it up. Beating both UM and tOSU with conf champ requirement very hard now. MSU needs to improve talent levels with one of the best + game coaches in the country.
I appreciate the reply, especially as quick as you did. However I have a problem with a few things that you had said. For one, Michigan has had a top 10 recruiting class even in the Rich Rod era, yet we beat them, OSU had a top recruiting class and players coming back last year and we beat them. Also you talk about MSU needing to improve the talent level to keep up yet have you looked at the preseason awards? For the award for best defensive player in the nation only 3 teams had 4 players on the list, LSU, Bama, and MSU. On this year top defensive back list the B1G has a total of only 4 of the 31 DB’s selected and of those 4 MSU represent 2 of them. For the top offensive player in the nation Michigan has 2 players and MSU has 1. I just can’t believe that MSU needs to “improve the talent level” when they are clearly producing top level college football players is all. When you list the last 5 class “rankings” I laugh at it because unless it is in the top top teams the rankings clearly mean nothing. Look at those last 5 classes, now look at the last 3 seasons MSU has had, there is no direct correlation to the rankings that are out there. Kirk Cousins I believe was a 2 or a 3 star recruit, LeVeon Bell was a 2 star recruit and he is a heisman sleeper this year and if he comes back next year probably one of the favorites. None of this is an exact science and it’s hard to expect most of it to be perfect but a team like MSU defies the odds and has come out on top now under the Dantonio team. Again, I appreciate you taking the time to answer my question and the time im sure it took and takes to deliver this matrix. I am excited for this football season and can’t wait for MSU to represent their division in the B1G title game yet again. My prediction for the MSU vs Michigan game by the way is 28-13 MSU. Denard still can’t throw the ball especially facing a defense as fast as MSU’s with the numerous playmakers they have.
Couple of quick notes DT. Thank U for the questions and your thoughts. The CFBMatrix was designed to not get into players and keep it simple. While I understand MSU beat OSU and UM in isolated incidents, the Matrix goes with odds and trends over time. It is not perfect and thank goodness for that. MSU is also very blessed to have such a good coach. He has no upset loses in over 2 seasons and is +6 in games. That is top 10, any time for a two year period. This year they are project 9-3 on talent and schedule. I expect that or better out of CMD. He has a history or out performing talent. But you have also caught UM on a long term and OSU on a short term down turn. Unless your talent improves and the rest of the Big Ten stays down remember to celebrate the up times not expect them. I still will take Michigan 2 out of 3 or better home, road or neutral today. – Dave Dave@cfbmatrix.com twitter @cfbmatrix
I am not sure I understand the significance of your chart above. What does the rank at any time prior to signing day matter? Also, are the rankings adjusted to account for attrition?