Winning games means better recruiting?

Think again.  I have been saying it for a decade and Blacksburg is the Holy Grail of college football charts that back up that theory.  BCS game appearances is the other false idol that fans think helps recruiting.  Neither do and the Hokies have won 10 or more games 9 of the last 10 years and been to more than their share of BCS bowl games.  And their CFBMatrix composite recruiting ranking in each of those last 10 years: 54, 23, 37, 14, 33, 25, 19, 38, 31, 37 & 22.   Their 4 year moving average has never been above #20 or below #32.

They are very consistent, yet range bound to their recruiting.  They will continue to win 9-11 games as long as they have Beemer and are in an ACC with poor coaching at the top half of the conference talent.  As games are added and recruiting remains stagnant, the possibility of another National Championship Game shrinks into the rear view mirror.

2012 Team and Coaching Profile

A #22 class replaces the outgoing top 20 class and further reduces the overall talent at Virginia Tech.  While not alarming, the talent pulled into Blacksburg is in a clear decline.  To be elite and a National Title Contender the Hokies need to figure our how to string together top 20 classes ( at the least).

Returning starters mean very little to win totals and while the Hokies have just 13 starters back in the fold 9 are on defense and both kickers are back.  That is very good and I would take that over more offensive players and a QB all day long.

Everybody loves Beemer.  The media, football fans, voters.  However, the last 4 years have become very predictable and pedestrian by his former standards.

In the last 4 years, the CFBMatrix has been right on the Hokies win total 3 of the last 4 and off just one game (-1) the other year.  He is much more vulnerable to the loss at home and near automatic on the road.  That becomes an issue when the schedule becomes home heavy.  Like this year.

2012 Schedule Breakdown

I usually go game by game but Beemer and CO. are just too rock solid to mess around with each game.

Road Locks – The Hokies have lost just one game in the last 5 years when I have picked them to win.  Pittsburgh, Miami, Boston College.  Win. Win. Win

Home Locks – When picked to lose in the last 4 years, the Hokies have pulled one upset win.  They are picked to lose to Florida State. Loss.  When picked to win at home in conference games, Virginia Tech has two losses in the last 2 years.  So Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech.  Win. Win. Win.

There is 6-1 with 5 games left. 3 out of conference games, North Carolina and Clemson.

Austin Peay at home. Win. 7-1.  Here is where is gets interesting for the Hokies as the last 4 games will make them a top 10 team or out of the top 25.  They are prone to giving up the home upset win to an out of conference opponent all too often but counter this with exceptional road play.  The straight up talent and stadium numbers pick them to beat Cincinnati and Bowling Green at home and lose to North Carolina and Clemson on the road.  This will put them at 9-3 for 2012 and in the top 25.  I would expect them to go 2-2 with this combination of 4 teams with the road win against North Carolina and home loss to the Bearcats.  Hold their ground at home and pick up a road upset win and they are 10-2 and in the top 10.  No road wins and lose one of the two at home and they are 8-4 and out of the top 25.

I’ll stick with the best odds at 9 wins and an appearance in the ACC championship game.

- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix & your Anti-Homer Follow @cfbmatrix