Washington Huskies – 2012
4 of the last 5 recruiting classes for the Huskies have been top 25. There are fewer than 20 teams in college football that can make that claim. I know Washington is in the 3rd toughest division in college football, but there are only so many 7-5 seasons that can be tolerated in Seattle. Maybe this is the break out year. The chart clearly shows the talent is there to do so. Recruiting will be improving with the upgraded facilities, but coming off the 2011 season, is it time for a coaching upgrade as well?
2012 Team and Coaching Profile
Why do I question the coaching effect at UDub? I know many Huskie fans give Sark a pass for his first year following the depths that Willingham produced. But the fact is that teams with UWs level of talent follow a sub .500 season with a .500 season or better over 75% of the time. 0-12 to 5-7 seems like a big jump, but there was still a lot left on the table.
2009. 2010. 2011. Every season Sarkisian and his staff have under performed predictions by at least one game. He is ranked 7th out of 8 head coaches in the PAC12 for head coach effect heading into 2012. There is no other active coach in the country on a 3 season negative coaching effect streak. The only coaches to make it to a 5th season in recent years were Neuheisel and Shannon (Miami). It is from this trend that I placed him on the 2012 One Star Hot Seat. Anything under 8-4 is another under perform.
2012 Huskies Schedule
Having shown that the top 25 rankings is entirely a win first system, I wonder what compelled the AD to schedule a game with LSU. If that was Louisiana Tech instead, the Huskies would be a near lock for a top 25 finish. While that really doesn’t matter for bowls or anything else, it gives fans and players encouragement that things are improving (even if they are not).
While the numbers predict a 2-1 start before the bye for Washington, that first game has trap written all over it. The San Diego State game is bigger than LSU and has much more riding on it. SDSU will be fired up to try and win. A loss will be devastating to the season and the hot seat will be on fire. Falling out of his boat into Montlake won’t quench the flames.
The CFBMatrix charts shows that Sarkisian is solid in predictions at home and weak on the road. He has just two upset wins at home in the last 3 years. Between Stanford and USC coming to town, they have the best shot of beating the Cardinal. Oregon on the road is just too tough coming off playing Stanford and looking ahead to USC. 1-2 in that 3 game stretch will be good enough and put them at .500 half way through 2012.
The last 6 conference games are not just winnable but very winnable. It’s somewhat funny in that I see that as winnable, but also must wins. At home against Oregon State and Utah. Must wins in front of the season ticket holders. And on the road getting beat by a very weak Arizona team, a weaker Colorado team and a over-hyped Cougar program would all be bad losses. The only one that is an understandable loss is a tough division road test at Cal. Not only do I think they finish 5-1, they must finish 5-1. That is the story the Matrix is weaving for me. They would be 8-4 and right on talent expectations. However, -1 game per season is the Sarkisian trend, a trend I cannot see extending past this year, with or without him.
- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix & your Anti-Homer Follow @cfbmatrix
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| SOS Rank | SPG Rank | SOS # | SPG # | |
| Total SOS/SPG | 6 | 8 | 40.4 | 15.4 |
| OOC SOS/SPG | 5 | 7 | 63.7 | 38.7 |
| Inter-Conf. SOS/SPG | 6 | 7 | 32.7 | 7.7 |
March 2012 Game Predictions
Got a lot of twitter comments and feedback. Fans want to be heard.
I disagree that 7 wins puts him on a hot seat. I think it raises questions, but I think hot seat is too far. Maybe at some programs he would be, but expectations in Seattle have changed since the recent downturn and high number of losses per season. I believe the administration and the fan base will tolerate another 7 win season, particularly if a bowl win brings the total to 8. In short, I think you’re misreading the lion’s share of the fan base. Sark is well liked up there, is well respected up there, and I think bringing in a whole new defensive staff gives the program the feel of a fresh start, and that the past couple seasons don’t matter as much as what happens this year and next. Frankly, I think he’d “survive” back to back 7 win seasons. Regardless, I do think expectations in Seattle have shifted. Going 0-12 (still not very long ago) changed things.
Hi Craig – Anyone can take a fan base temperature and make a pre-season hot seat list. You see it all the time as a way to fill space and add content. But outside of the conjecture is that telling a possible story or providing reason behind the selection? While I fully agree with you the majority of the UW fan base is satisfied with CSS, I am ‘reading’ the trends on him from the CFBMatrix. The Matrix was created as a simple tool to tell a story about the past, present and future of a program through the only 3 tools proven to effect game outcome and to provide fans with a clear reasoning behind predictions. By reading his coach effect trends, I am merely pointing out that coaches that have a net negative coach effect for 4 consecutive years rarely see the 5th season. He is also following a past pattern, not truly Matrix related, of an under performing program by replacing staff he hired. Are you ok with his performance if UW is .500 through 6 games and loses 2 of the last 6 games against that schedule? For a program that has out recruited Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Virginia Tech the last 5 years, to name a few, I do not see that as good enough in Seattle, even if most fans disagree.
Thank you very much for the feedback – Dave Bartoo