Want to be an NFL QB? Don’t go to an ‘Elite’ program
Dave Bartoo – The College Football Matrix
April 12, 2013
As I showed in the previous article, QBs drafted since 2004 from under performing teams are twice as likely to Bust in the NFL than guys from over performing teams. In writing the article, I noticed there appeared to be a pattern more than their fair share of ‘Busts’ coming from the elite schools.
Since the top 16 talent adjusted recruiters since 2002 have all won and lost the last 8 National Championship games, I felt that was a place to start to see if it is better to go to an elite program for your NFL QB career or not.
- Of the teams that have been a top 16 recruiters since 2002, 18 QBs from those teams have been drafted into the NFL. Only 4 were not labeled ‘busts’ for a failure rate of 78%. When you look at the QBs drafted from this group AND were coming of a negative coach effect season then the numbers drop to a 11% success rate or just 1 of the last 9 guys taken. Barkley and Manuel when drafted, with be included in this ultra high-risk group.
- On the flip side, the QBs from AQ teams outside the top 16 in elite recruiting tell a much different story. Their success rate in the NFL is nearly double that of the elite top 16 teams at 41%. Even more impressive is the numbers for QBs with positive coach effect as their failure rate is just 53% vs. elite team QBs at 78%. Even the non-elite QBs from teams with a negative or zero coach effect busted less often than QBs drafted from top 16 recruiters at 73.4%, the same rate as QBs from the top 16 teams with positive coach effect.
After 8 years of draft information, I feel it is a very clear trend that QBs from these elite teams have a much higher bust rate than their ‘non-elite’ peers. Given that a bad draft and bad choice of a quarterback can set a franchise back many years, reducing risk must be paramount in picking QB.
In my amateur opinion, QBs from these ‘elite’ teams, simply do not have the game to game pressure and learning curve to prepare for the NFL. When you are on an ‘elite’ team, you, as a QB, are rarely in a situation where you are in a tight game, under pressure, forced to lead and carry a team every weekend. In the NFL, that’s what you need to do every day.
Sure it is hard to judge an elite guy from and elite program but they need to at least live up to team talent expectations (Bradford). Think about it, how many big time pressure situations (like you see in the NFL every week) happen to elite team QBs? Once, twice, in any given year? Clausen, Quinn, Young, Leinert, Russell, Sanchez….. how many games did those guys play in to prepare them for the NFL’s most demanding position?
2013 QB Draft Class to AVOID with 89% Bust rate: Matt Barkley, EJ Manuel and Landry Jones
Note to HS QB recruits: This tells you to win go to an elite program, to get to the NFL and be successful there get experience and prove yourself a leader and winner somewhere else.
Questions , concerns, comments? I am the man behind the curtain. Tweet me @CFBMatrix, call 971.244.3041, email dave @cfbmatrix.com – Dave Bartoo
FWIW: 66% This is the average ‘bust’ rate of QB drafted into the NFL since 2004 as defined by the spreadsheet (disagree with the spreadsheet then comment below, tweet me @CFBMatrix or email firstname.lastname@example.org).