Listen & follow the charts )))) Returning Starters – Offense
Offense: The magic number on offense is 7*. This is the cut line for having the odds in your team’s favor for winning as many or more football games in 2013.
Below 7 returning offensive starters and your team’s odds for 2012 having as many or more wins than in 2011 drops under 50%. But keep in mind even teams with 10 starters back of offense, only 70% had the SAME or better record. Odds are barely a coin flip that your win total will actually go up.
Of the 14 teams that returned 10 or 11 in the last 4 years, 10 went on to an equal or better number of regular season wins in the next season.
Overall, teams with 7 or more starters on Offense coming back had .36 more wins per team and .62 more wins for those returning 8 or more.
Teams with 6 or fewer back on offense averaged -.62 fewer games won for each team and the odds of having a worse record in 2012 versus 2011 is 52%.
In a Nutshell: There is very little overall impact on offensive returning starters between returning 4-9 players. 8 or more is about an extra win for every other team. It is clear there is a difference in performance at 7 or more coming back. However the odds of your team having as many or more wins in 2012 based on 9 or fewer returning starters on offense is still less than 62% in at any number. 31 AQ schools return 8 or more on offense.
*For AQ teams only. I did not go through every non-AQ program to add to the stats. IMO, it is likely, due to the lack of talent diversification at the non-AQ level that returning starter experience is more valuable to those teams.