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College Football Returning Starters – Offense

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Returning Starters 2013 - Offense

By Bartoo

Listen & follow the charts )))) Returning Starters – Offense

Offense: The magic number on offense is 7*. This is the cut line for having the odds in your team’s favor for winning as many or more football games in 2013. 

Below 7 returning offensive starters and your team’s odds for 2012 having as many or more wins than in 2011 drops under 50%.  But keep in mind even teams with 10 starters back of offense, only 70% had the SAME or better record.  Odds are barely a coin flip that your win total will actually go up.

Of the 14 teams that returned 10 or 11 in the last 4 years, 10 went on to an equal or better number of regular season wins in the next season.

Overall, teams with 7 or more starters on Offense coming back had .36 more wins per team and .62 more wins for those returning 8 or more.

Teams with 6 or fewer back on offense averaged -.62 fewer games won for each team and the odds of having a worse record in 2012 versus 2011 is 52%.

Click for all returning starter #s 2013

Returning Starters 2013 - Offense Win Change Odds

In a Nutshell: There is very little overall impact on offensive returning starters between returning 4-9 players. 8 or more is about an extra win for every other team. It is clear there is a difference in performance at 7 or more coming back. However the odds of your team having as many or more wins in 2012 based on 9 or fewer returning starters on offense is still less than 62% in at any number. 31 AQ schools return 8 or more on offense.

*For AQ teams only.  I did not go through every non-AQ program to add to the stats.  IMO, it is likely, due to the lack of talent diversification at the non-AQ level that returning starter experience is more valuable to those teams.

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1 Comment

  1. Pingback: Strength in (returning) numbers | Get The Picture

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