CFBMatrix Pre-Season Picks Record – 2012 thru Week 13
Each week I will post a running record and log of all the CFBMatrix pre-season and Best Bets selections for each week. As you may already know, the unique ‘macro’ view of the CFBMatrix, makes all game prediction in March before the spring practice of the coming season.
While making week to week adjustments may provide greater accuracy and detail, I enjoy the simplicity of the CFBMatrix view. No other publisher provides such a simple way of looking at college football and a complete transparency of selections. If it ain’t broke, I see no reason to make no changes to what has been working. As long as my pre-season predictions stay with or ahead of the annual ‘favorites’ win rate in Las Vegas, I think it is working just fine. I will update the 2012 record each week for all the picks for every game and the Best Bets.
Pre-Season Game Prediction Results
Every team, every game using talent, coaching and where it is played is predicted and posted by the end of March every season. The numbers on the chart reflect the record of all the CFBMatrix picks done 8 months ahead of the season.
No adjustments each week, just the record of the picks. Overall, Vegas favorites, who pick week to week and have massive computer systems, won at a 75.8% rate in 2011. That is my goal for 2012 AQ teams and conferences.
I have been disappointed in the sub-75% rates of the Big East, ACC and Big12 but pleased with the 76.5% rate of accuracy in AQ teams after 13 weeks. The CFBMatrix historically has performed worse with non-AQ schools as talent is much less a factor than scheduling and especially coaching. The 6 worst AQ coach effects account for 30 of the 116 AQ game misses this year. Nearly 30% of the misses in 10% of the coaches. Only two of those 6 have been fired to date. The Big Ten, Conf USA, WAC and MAC were 20-0 on the March picks. That was a lot of fun to watch happen over 8 months after the picks being made.
Best Bets Totals
What was a great start to the 2012 season got beat down in week 4, week 6 & crushed down in weeks 8 & 10 (but less units played). Weeks 5, 7 and now 9 were all up. Week 9 brought in a 46.66% ROI on 12 plays! Week 11 gave Best Bets a 2-1 ATS record, 1-1 in ML games and a winner in the Mr. Anderson’s weekly Parlay (5 teams) for a profitable week.
Week 12 was solid with a 2-1 ATS record, 1-1 on ML and Mr. Anderson’s Parlay cashed again. +2 more Units and an ROI of nearly 33% on the 6 plays.
Week 13 sucked, especially watching the totally lack of coaching ability at USC or a huge amount of point shaving. You decide. 1st and goal on the 1 down 9 with 5 minutes left. Whatever. ATS was 1-3, ML plays 1-1 and Mr. Anderson’s parlay stayed hot with a 3rd straight win on the 4 team parlay.
The middle section of the season was a roller coaster after the hot start. Nevertheless I have a positive ROI in all four segments of the CFBMatrix Best Bets after 13 weeks and a ROI of 21.82% on 134 plays is solid. The 20 recommended Total Win Over/Unders are still looking great. So far 18 of the 20 picks have been confirmed for 14-4. The other 2 team totals are Overs and I need Oklahoma and Baylor to win to close out total wins at 16-4 after the 9-3 season in 2011.