Texas A&M Aggies
What a waste. If you are an Aggies fan and that is your first though about the last 8 years then you would be spot on. From 2005 to 2007 this team was ABOVE the BCS berth cut line. Every winner and loser of the NCG since 2005 has been above the blue line below. And as, easily the #3 recruiter in the Big12, not one season over 10 wins. So now you have a new coach, a new conference and a new outlook. And this team is still very talented. While the recruiting at A&M is not likely to get above #10 nationally, it should be good enough, with the right coach and schedule to get 10+ wins and a run at a division title. Keep in mind though, since 2002, not one team with a CFBMatrix adjusted 4 year recruiting rank has won the West without a top 10 ranking. The Aggies are #19 this year. It will take 1-3 years before thoughts of a division title are serious.
2012 Team and Coaching Profile
As we noted above, the talent is certainly there. Much less so in the SEC but good enough for thought of win totals in the 7 to 9 range are realistic. But the Aggies have a new coach and while his record was good with Houston, it was against teams that the Cougars completely out recruited. So I don’t know if Sumlin can really ‘coach’ in close and tough games. I will stick to the national average of -1 game effect for new head coaches and re-evaluate after 2012.
15 returning starters but only one kicker is back. Both kickers and 6 or more on D is more important in the SEC. Not having your starting QB or more than half your offense is largely a useless stat.
Over the last 4 years recruiting, wins and conference record have been largely flat in College Station. I expect that to continue while Sumlin and his staff develop their culture and attitude in approaching each game and season.
2012 Texas A&M Aggies Schedule
With a new coach, the old trends and records of A&M are out the door. Not that I liked them that much other than counting on Sherman to lose at least 3 games he was predicted to win every year. So I don’t know what to think about projecting the Aggies other than good ole fashioned straight up Matrix with nothing but recruiting and schedule.
The bye week is right int he middle and it will be a tale of two seasons. I predict the Aggies to be top 20 and 5-1 to start 2012 losing only to the Gator. Now Muschamp has been nothing special, at all, so 6-0 is not unrealistic. But also not probable and the CFBMatrix is about using simple, effective numbers to get on the side of the best odds. No trap games in the first half of the season.
Then comes the second half of the season in which the Aggies could give most of their wins back with a stretch of 4 brutal games. Mississippi State could be overlooked in that LSU, Auburn, Alabama gauntlet and A&M could lose four straight. Not predicting it as I see a win over Mississippi State, but that should bring them to 6-4 with two to play. An easy OoC crushing of Sam Houston State before the finale with Mizzou. They are hosting the Tigers but Missouri has won 3 straight. But Sumlin hasn’t lost too many games to teams that he has out recruited. My favorite number for Aggie wins in 2012 is 7.5.
|SOS Rank||SPG Rank||SOS #||SPG #|
SOS = Strength of Schedule = Ave field adjusted recruiting rank (#FARR) of all teams played. The smaller the SOS #, the tougher the schedule.
SPG = Schedule Power Gap is SOS minus the FARR ranking of the team. The smaller the SPG # the more likely the team is to win more games with average coaching versus teams with larger SPGs.