Breaking down Total Wins Over/Unders for a Top 25
Using the CFBMatrix two step formula for BCS rankings and the 100 Total Wins Over/Unders posted by 5Dimes. With nearly all the AQ teams and most of the expected top non-AQs on their list, I thought I would apply the new information obtained in the CFBMatrix BCS Unplugged series of articles.
Only 5 teams have a line of 10 or better. Some of these teams are at 10.5 in other books that have posted total win props. I ranked the teams in order of amount needed to win $100. USC is the odds favorite to win the most at -205. That means you need to risk (bet) $205 in order to win $100 versus $155 to win $100 on Alabama.
The group of 4 teams with 9.5 total wins are organized in order by the conference rankings of the voters. I treat Boise State with the same voter bias as a Big East team and put them at the bottom of this group. Another 9.5 win team, Houston is dropped a full game to the 8.5 group.
Ohio State and Wisconsin are slight favorites over Texas and Michigan for more wins. Michigan would be a bump to 10 if they weren’t playing the Tide. The rear of the 9 win teams is Louisville. Too bad there isn’t a 9.5 on the Cardinal out there.
The 8.5 group is a big one. It sorted it in order of voter conference bias as noted in the breakdown of conference preference by voters and in the last article of making your own top 25 the BCS way. I pushed Houston to the bottom as a high Non-AQ2 team. Given their national name in the media the last few years, I am assuming they have some voter emotional sway to get a bump.
The last 2 are Florida and Kansas State. Georgia Tech gets the bump because they are in the ACC. Remember the ranking trend is SEC, PAC12, BIG12, ACC, Big Ten, Big East, NonAq1, Non AQ2. To see some recent lines from 5Dimes, The Greek and some Vegas Bookmakers through 19.7.2012, go to this printable PDF.
I love total win props. They are great because you get to track teams all season, it usually comes down to 1 big game, I love beating a book and I am 17-5 since I started posting Best Bets for total wins props.
- Dave Bartoo, The CFBMatrix and your Anti-Homer.