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SEC 2013 Total Wins Matrix

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Breaking down 2013 SEC Win Total Odds

By BARTOO

This is as simple as it gets folks.  Forget the teams, the players, the coaches and the conference.  There have been 456 different 12 game regular season schedules played since 2005.  And every single one of those teams had a record the following year.

This is not the ending, but rather the beginning of considering what any given AQ team is going to produce for total wins in 2013.  Every year you are going to get amazing outlying performance.  Like Oregon State going from 3 to 9 wins or Ohio State going from 6 to 12, both never done before.  But those are exceptions.  Nearly 70% of all teams have been +/- just 2 games away from their previous season win total.

(Click Here to Go To SEC Predictions Home Page 2013)

(Click on Chart to Enlarge Matrix)

2013 total wins odds matrix

Some quick hit observations/notes:

Alabama:  Oddsmakers released and O/U (over/under) win total on Bama at 11.5.  With less than 20% of all teams going from 11 wins to 12 in a season, pretty clear the under is a favorite.  72% of the time a team goes 10-2 or worse after an 11-1 season.

Auburn:  No where to go but up after 3 wins.  Amazingly, to me, about 27% of all 3 win teams go 3 wins or worse the next season.  However, 78% of all top 40 recruiters coming off 5 or fewer wins go 6 wins or better the next season.  Tigers. Bowl Eligible. Lock.

Arkansas:  Will Arkansas improve?  70% of the time 5 win teams get bowl eligible the next year.  But with a new head coach, high attrition and in the toughest division in college football?

Ole Miss: 6 wins or more again for the Rebs?  66% of the time it happens.  But if you think they are going 10+ in 2013 then you live in Oxford, bleed red and blue and think that one recruiting class makes you a national title contender.

Mississippi State: What a rock solid year for the Bulldogs in 2012.  Odds say 35% chance of improvement.  But bowl eligible odds are at 84%. 

LSU:  A ten win team has amazing odds and they are VERY unpredictable.  52 times a team has gone 10-2 and 51% of the time they win 9 or fewer the next year.  So 49% of the time they go back to back double digit wins.  Wow.  That there’s a coin flip.

Florida: See Bama. See Georgia.  76% of the time 11-1 gets you 10-2 or worse (62% 9-3 or worse).  With UGA, Bama and the Gators all coming off 11-1 seasons, the odds say at least one is dropping to 9-3.

Georgia:  See Bama and Florida

South Carolina: See the LSU 10 win coin flip.  Odds are 50/50 the Gamecocks go 10 or better again.

Vanderbilt: Just like MSU, Vandy has a 35% chance of a better record in 2013.  With the new QB effect numbers I am finding, and Vandy just lost their QB that led them to huge wins over the last 2 years, I am leaning strong toward the 46% odds of a worse record in 2013.

Kentucky: Even coming off a 2-10 season, the Wildcats have just a 69% chance of 3-9 or better in 2013.  I would have sworn it would be higher.  I guess when you hit that level of suck, it’s hard to dig out.  Love the UK passion to start the season, but don’t set the bar to high for Stoops and Co.

Missouri: Odds only slightly favor Missouri getting to bowl eligible 6 wins in 2013 (55%).  With their recruiting trends and the SEC talent, if there is a school that needs to be against 9 conference games, this is program, with UK, Vandy and Arkansas, is certainly one of them.

Tennessee: With half the 5-7 teams getting to 6 wins or more the next season, I’d think about taking the Vols over Missouri as the one from the SEC to do it.  But looking ahead a step their OOC (@Oregon) and SEC sked (1st four SEC games UGA, USC, Bama, Gators) plus tie breaker at Mizzou, let’s just be happy if they get to 5-7 again.

Texas A&M: See South Carolina and LSU.  One of them is going 9-3 or worse by the odds matrix.

(Click on Chart to enlarge)

2013 total wins odds matrix - SEC

 

 

1 Comment

  1. Walker

    February 12, 2016 at 5:33 pm

    Dawgs 28 Alabama 17Aaron Murray 17/38 229 2 TDs 1 INTTodd Gurley 19 aettmpts 79 yards 1 TDKeith Marshall 12 aettmpts 28 yards 0 TDsMalcolm Mitchell 7 catches 113 yards 1 TDJarvis Jones 16 tackles 1 sack 2 FF 1 INTBaccari Rambo recovers a fumble in the fourth by Yeloden (forced by JJ) and returns for a TD to put the Dawgs up 11 with less than two minutes lessMVP Jarvis Jones

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