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Upset Alerts – Week #11

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The CFBMatrix Weekly Picks Against the Vegas Favorite

The Original #UpsetAlert


YTD: #UpsetAlert Results: 21-18

Often imitated, never duplicated.  Since I started the #UpsetAlerts last year it has quickly become a fan, reader and listener favorite.  And for good reason.  They are fun and are correct at a rate over double that of Vegas dogs winning.

If this is your first time visiting, you are not going to find a bunch of slides to jack up page counts or crazy calls hoping one big upset comes from 10 different big games just to get folks talking and riled up.  No, I want to post winners.  I want to be right.

Whether it is just a game or two one week or 5+ games the next, my goal is to use the CFBMatrix trends and system to find winners.    While I know that even 50%  correct on teams that are 2,3 and sometimes 4:1 dogs for a season is a great record. 2012 got off to a hot start, but then Vegas sharpened their pencils and I stayed aggressive against them rather than cutting off bad coaches and coach effect.  31-41 was the final tally but beating each one equally would have put a guy up over 40% ROI. 

UPDATE: What an awful week #10.  After a 3-1 week 9, I get a 1-4 week to follow it.   It’s not like there were a lot of Upsets in week #10.  Two AQ teams, one was my pick of USC over OSU and just a couple of non-AQ games including beta formula 6.0 tagging Akron.  Down to .500 against Vegas favorites on the season.  Home dogs, which surprises the hell out of me, at doing terrible.  Got to keep firing.

Home #UpsetAlerts – (YTD 8-13)

(Updated November 6, 2013)

  • Utah +6.5 at home vs Arizona State – The Utes pulled one of the bigger shockers at home vs Stanford a few weeks ago, but that is not why I am making this pick.  You already know the picks are made in March and these are simply my faves vs Vegas faves.   The White Rabbit projection beta gives two scores.  Year to date metrics 31-30 Utah.  Utah at home vs ASU on the road 33-21 ASU.

Road Upset Alerts – (ytd 14-9)

  • Oklahoma +13 at Baylor – Time to put my money where my mouth is.  I have been saying that Baylor is simply where they are supposed to be with their talent and schedule but with video game numbers.  It’s a perfect storm of an inconsistent conference and blend of talent and scheme.  However, the Sooners have been good on the road but dealing with their fair share of injuries.  This is my least favorite upset alert as the models kick out 31-24 Baylor and 37-21 Baylor
  • Penn State +2.5 at Minnesota: What a huge and improbable run for a Gopher team that has had 5 straight recruiting classes of each worse than the previous year.  3 straight upsets for Minnesota.  This game should be a shoot out as neither is too great on defense.  24-21 Penn State


NEW! Formula 6.0 #UpsetAlert YTD: 3-4

  • Pending

NFL #UpsetAlert YTD: 12-12

  •  Pending


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