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Upset Alerts – Week #14

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The CFBMatrix Weekly Picks Against the Vegas Favorite

The Original #UpsetAlert

BY BARTOO

YTD: #UpsetAlert Results: 28-35

Often imitated, never duplicated.  Since I started the #UpsetAlerts last year it has quickly become a fan, reader and listener favorite.  And for good reason.  They are fun and are correct at a rate over double that of Vegas dogs winning. If this is your first time visiting, you are not going to find a bunch of slides to jack up page counts or crazy calls hoping one big upset comes from 10 different big games just to get folks talking and riled up.  No, I want to post winners.  I want to be right. Whether it is just a game or two one week or 5+ games the next, my goal is to use the CFBMatrix trends and system to find winners.    While I know that even 50%  correct on teams that are 2,3 and sometimes 4:1 dogs for a season is a great record. 2012 got off to a hot start, but then Vegas sharpened their pencils and I stayed aggressive against them rather than cutting off bad coaches and coach effect.  31-41 was the final tally but beating each one equally would have put a guy up over 40% ROI. 

UPDATE: What an awful run since week #10.  Three straight weeks of so few upsets.  Vegas is on a roll for favorites I have not seen in 6 years.  Disappointing but not unexpected.  The Vegas pencil does get sharper in the 2nd half of the season.  Upsets are much harder to find as the good and bad coaching of talent is much easier to separate in November. The number of Matrix favorites in March versus Vegas favorites is rising, making for a down week much tougher on the overall record. Upset Alerts is now under .500 against Vegas favorites on the season.  Home dogs, which surprises the hell out of me, is  doing terrible this year.   It goes against the last 7 years of Upset Alert trends as they finished over .500 every year since 2007.

Home #UpsetAlerts – (YTD 10-22)

(Updated November 26, 2013)

  • NC State +2.5 vs Maryland  The Pack’s new head coach hasn’t shown the NIU magic yet and is -1 coach effect on the year.  Edsall is 0.  This is poor versus weak.  Give me the home team.
  • Illinois +4.5 vs Northwestern: Look Beckman has been bad since day 1 and you know all about Fitz in the Matrix.  But NU has had a baaaddddd season, and they want to just get this over with by now.  Neither going to a bowl.  Neither is any good.  Why not the home team for a W.
  • Auburn +10.5 vs Alabama: The CFBMatrix numbers said Auburn should be a 10-2 team this year.  The best I could project them was 7-5.  No team has ever gone from 3-9 to 10-2 or better [only OSU in ’11-’12 went from 3-9 to 9-3].  This is such a screwed up year for pre-season dogs….why not the Tigers?
  • TCU +12.5 vs Baylor:  After the last 3 years, I would not have guessed Briles was the plus and Patterson was the minus head coach coming into this game.  Only good thing I think I got in this one is Patterson good past coaching and a big let down for the Bears.

Road Upset Alerts – (ytd 18-13)

  •  Texas A&M +4.5 at Missouri:  Screw it.  Might as well go against the Tigers one last time.  The shine is definitely off Sumlin and A&M.  How bad are they going to be without Johnny bailing them out.  Great time for Sumlin to bail.

NFL #UpsetAlert YTD: 15-13

  • TEN +3.5 over IND
  • MIA +1.5 over NYJ
  • CIN +1.5 over SD

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