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Upset Alerts – Week #15

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The CFBMatrix Weekly Picks Against the Vegas Favorite

The Original #UpsetAlert


YTD: #UpsetAlert Results: 29-39

Often imitated, never duplicated.  Since I started the #UpsetAlerts last year it has quickly become a fan, reader and listener favorite.  And for good reason.  They are fun and are correct at a rate over double that of Vegas dogs winning. If this is your first time visiting, you are not going to find a bunch of slides to jack up page counts or crazy calls hoping one big upset comes from 10 different big games just to get folks talking and riled up.  No, I want to post winners.  I want to be right. Whether it is just a game or two one week or 5+ games the next, my goal is to use the CFBMatrix trends and system to find winners.    While I know that even 50%  correct on teams that are 2,3 and sometimes 4:1 dogs for a season is a great record. 2012 got off to a hot start, but then Vegas sharpened their pencils and I stayed aggressive against them rather than cutting off bad coaches and coach effect.  31-41 was the final tally but beating each one equally would have put a guy up over 40% ROI. 

UPDATE: What an awful run since week #10.  Four straight weeks of so few upsets.  Vegas is on a roll for favorites I have not seen in 6 years.  Disappointing and really unexpected.  The Vegas pencil does get sharper in the 2nd half of the season but this is freak crazy.  Although 1-4 last week, the Auburn upset didn’t hurt.   Damn TCU woulda, coulda,, shoulda.

Upsets are much harder to find as the good and bad coaching of talent is much easier to separate in November. The number of Matrix favorites in March versus Vegas favorites is rising, making for a down week much tougher on the overall record. Upset Alerts is now under .500 against Vegas favorites on the season.

Home dogs, which surprises the hell out of me, is  doing terrible this year.   It goes against the last 7 years of Upset Alert trends as they finished over .500 every year since 2007.

BUT the new NFL modeling keeps rolling!   17-14 on the new models in upsets and 39-18-2 the last 5 weeks in my picks for best bets.

Ballz to the wallz this week.  Already down under .500, I am going to shoot all the bullets left in the college football season for Upset Alerts.

Thank you all for reading and following along this year.  I has been my pleasure to share my odd, albeit effective (sometimes) point of view.  – Bartoo

Home #UpsetAlerts – (YTD 11-25)

(Updated December 3, 2013)

  • Cincinnati +7 over Louisville

Road Upset Alerts – (ytd 18-14)

  • Bowling Green +4 vs Northern Illinois
  • Texas +15 at Baylor
  • Oklahoma +10 at Oklahoma State
  • Stanford +3 at Arizona State

NFL #UpsetAlert YTD: 17-14

  • JAX +3 vs HOU
  • OAK +3 over NYJ
  • NYG +3 over SD
  • SEA +3 over SF

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