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Using TO Margins to Project Win Totals

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Breaking Down TO Margin Trends

Part 3 of 3: Using TO Margins To Get An Edge

I have shown the correlation of the previous season turnover margins and the impact, on average, it has on the next season’s win totals.  We know that the bigger or smaller the TO margin, the greater impact, positive and negative, it has on the upcoming season.  But the question for me is, “Where is the cut line?”  At what point do we feel the most confident about high and low TO margins?

+14 and Over

In the last 4 years, 24 of the 27 teams that posted a +14 or better turnover margin for the season had a reduction in total regular season wins the next season.  Move the line to +15,  and it goes to 19 out of 20.  From here, I would be looking a returning experience, talent recruited talent, coaching and scheduling for those most likely to take a step back in win totals.

+15 or more TOM

-8 and Under

It is a pretty easy guess to say 1 and 2 win teams will win more games in 2015.  For the 30 teams in the last four years that posted a -8 turnover margin or worse, 24 of them posted a better total win mark the next year.  For those most likely to get a big bump in total wins, I am focusing on the teams with more talent relative to their conference and previous good coaching.  Outside of the Wolverines, this in not a group of solid recruiters, even within their conference.  Texas Tech and Washington State would be two teams with good numbers with my lean definitely to Coach Leach and the Cougars.

-8 or less 2014 TOM

 

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  1. Pingback: College Football Notes - 02.20.15 - The Saturday Edge

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