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Week 1 Gamebag for Fans/Followers/Bettors – 2012

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Week 1 of College Football is upon us!  While I have 22 teams that hit their Over or Under Total Win targets, 2 ATS and 7 ML plays posted in Best Bets for our clients, I want to have everyone be able to ask me to interpret how I see any outcomes, bets, odds, etc.  While they are just my opinions in reading the tea leaves of The College Football Matrix, I think it can aid in understanding what it is all about. #sharethewealth

Tweet to me @CFBMatrix or email dave@cfbmatrix.com

#1.  Any thoughts on WSU vs BYU this Thursday? I really like the Cougs at +13.5 which is what I got it at. Curious what the matrix says? – Jim S.

-These are two teams, on paper, that show to be very close in talent.  If this game is at WSU, I take WSU straight up.  I hesitate because of the new coach at WSU.  Keep in mind Leach, in the CFBMatrix, while above average had just one lightning in a bottle (LIAB) year.  6-6 at WSU in year 1 would be his 2nd best coaching year ever in the Matrix.  I didn’t pick this game for Best Bets and suggest to keep clear of the new head coach, but 13.5 is a lot for what I see as even teams. – Dave

#2. Akron +24 v UCF? – Scott

-No opinion on that one.  Akron has little to no talent compared to UCF, but I don’t like O’Leary’s trend at UCF and his rapidly declining talent base from bad recruiting.

#3. How bad are the Ducks beating Arky State?

At it’s core the Matrix is simply about wins and loses (that’s all that counts) but FWIW the Ducks have played 7 teams in the last 4 years with a similar talent profile to the Red Wolves.  Average score 61-11.

#4.  I think that UNLV should hang with Minnesota at home better than 9 points.  Thoughts? – Sonny

Until last year, Minnesota was a consistent team at home and on the road.  They had not lost a OoC game and held their own for their talent level in the Big Ten.  The Gophers should crush UNLV with the talent gap they have going into this game.  But I don’t trust Kill to get anything done let alone cover on the road.  While I have shown that returning starter numbers mean next to nothing on the elite level, it has shown to become more important as talent levels decrease.  Minny returns just 10 guys (3 on offense) and UNLV has 16 back including the QB and both kickers.  8 new guys on offense on the road to open the season with a below average coach?  9 points looks like a lot for this one but I’ll passed that line.

#5. I have northwestern being favored in this one? Like the coach and some of their playmakers. Thoughts? – Max @mtsabert

Vegas does have Northwestern by something like -1.5.  In the Matrix, with the home field adjustment these teams are dead even.  Here’s the bottom line on Fitzgerald.  In the last 5 years when picked to win in the pre-season by the CFBMatrix he is 14-2 and 3-0 on the road.   He is a +1 game coach at home and freaking +14 (best if CFB last 5 yrs) on the road.  Syracuse is much worse at home than on the road giving up an upset loss at home nearly half the time they are favored to win and only 2 wins in 3 years when picked to lose.

#6. On a neutral field who is favored, Hawaii or Arkansas State? – Jeromy @sportsbrewery

Both have new head coaches so toss out coach effect trends.  The Matrix is not as tested nor effective with non-AQs as well.  Arkansas State is trending up in talent and Hawaii is going down.  However, the Warriors have a Matrix talent edge and on a neutral field in the middle, say the Rose Bowl, the pick for the CFBMatrix would be Hawaii.

CFB Maven. National Radio Show Guest. The 1st word on CFB thru The Wide-Angle Lens of CFB. Attrition Analytics Consultant & owner of #UpsetAlert & #PaceOfPlay

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