Week 10 Pre-Season Predictions
Week 10 Pre-Season Picks and Preview
As you know, I make all the game winner/loser picks in the pre-season using just my TLC formulas to simplify college football. It runs between 75-78% correct. This has been the best model over the last 7 years of picking straight up (SU) game winners in all of college football. The best year, my picks, all done before the season with no changes, finished 7 games behind the gold standard, Vegas, for the 2014 season. And I use 3 metrics. Talent, location, coaching.
I’ve added audio for the preview each week rather than a written breakdown. Easier and a lot more fun. Let me know what I can do to improve them for you.
Follow me on Twitter @CFBMatrix email email@example.com or text 971-217-8419. All questions and requests will go into my Pod for the People each week.
Quick chart overview:
Talent Gap – My talent rank difference for the teams playing. Anything within 10 is a close match up. Ex. Alabama has a 6.25 edge over USC.
Coach Effect – My running average of a coach’s ability to coach a team up or down by games. Ex. Satterfield is +3 games per year, Harsin is -1.5. Talent rules the Matrix, but Coach Effect is a strong tie break in Power 5 and should be followed closely in the Group 5 teams
OC/DC Grade – A new metric that is rooted in scoring efficiency and graded by the talent a OC/DC has versus the talent of their schedule. Use it for close picks and for forecasting OVER/UNDER leans
Week 10 TLC Picks (Done 3/14/2016)
YTD Pre-Season Picks Record (433-127 = 77.32%) Vegas Weekly SU Record (450-110 = 80.3%)
#UpsetAlert Record: 25-36 SU38-22-1 ATS
Over/Under Leans on OC/DC grade: 30-16
RRR: Talent levels nearly the same. Location neutral so this pick fell on coaching. Stoops>Strong. OU OC > UT OC. DCs about equal. Pick: OKLAHOMA