About CFB Matrix


Week 11 Pre-season Predictions

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Week 11 Pre-Season Picks and Preview

As you know, I make all the game winner/loser picks in the pre-season using just my TLC formulas to simplify college football.  It runs between 75-78% correct.  This has been the best model over the last 7 years of picking straight up (SU) game winners in all of college football. The best year, my picks, all done before the season with no changes, finished 7 games behind the gold standard, Vegas, for the 2014 season.  And I use 3 metrics. Talent, location, coaching.

I’ve added audio for the preview each week rather than a written breakdown.  Easier and a lot more fun.  Let me know what I can do to improve them for you.

Follow me on Twitter @CFBMatrix  email dave@cfbmatrix.com or text 971-217-8419.  All questions and requests will go into my Pod for the People each week.

Quick chart overview:
Talent Gap – My talent rank difference for the teams playing.  Anything within 10 is a close match up.  Ex. Alabama has a 6.25 edge over USC.
Coach Effect – My running average of a coach’s ability to coach a team up or down by games.  Ex. Satterfield is +3 games per year, Harsin is -1.5.  Talent rules the Matrix, but Coach Effect is a strong tie break in Power 5 and should be followed closely in the Group 5 teams
OC/DC Grade – A new metric that is rooted in scoring efficiency and graded by the talent a OC/DC has versus the talent of their schedule.  Use it for close picks and for forecasting OVER/UNDER leans

Week 11 TLC Picks (Done 3/15/2016)

YTD Pre-Season Picks Record (474-147 = 76.33%)  Vegas Weekly SU Record (499-122 = 80.35%)
#UpsetAlert Record: 26-44  SU41-28-1 ATS
Over/Under Leans on OC/DC grade: 34-18

RRR: Talent levels nearly the same.  Location neutral so this pick fell on coaching.  Stoops>Strong.  OU OC > UT OC.  DCs about equal. Pick: OKLAHOMA



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