Week 3 of College Football is already in full swing. There are just a few days left before Rutgers and South Florida roll out Week #3. I want to continue to have everyone be able to ask me to interpret how I see any outcomes, bets, odds, etc. While they are just my opinions in reading the tea leaves of The College Football Matrix, I think it can aid in understanding what it is all about.
Contact: Email: firstname.lastname@example.org (title it #Gamebag) or tweet @cfbmatrix
Week 3 Q&A in the #Gamebag
This game was picked in favor of the Gators in March. Florida has much more talent than the Vols and this is a team profile that Muschamp beat in 2011. he broke through last week with a win over a profile he lost 4 times to in 2011. Dooley, in the CFBMatrix, is 25-1 in correct pre-season pick outcomes. Given Muschamps short track record, Dooley’s 2+ year trends and the Gators having more talent I expect the Gators to win and cover in week 3.
#2. What about Michigan State and Notre Dame? - Robert Mobley
This is a flat out killer game. I am really looking forward to this one. Under Kelly, Notre Dame is 4-2 on the road when picked in the pre-season to win, but in the last 5 years under Dantonio, the Spartans are an amazing 7-3 at home when picked to lose. This is a coin toss. I took Notre Dame based on the superior talent and road record. If you must bet, the value in on the Irish but records are nearly even. Home field and better coaching versus better talent.
#3. Any opinion on FSU vs Wake this week? Does talent gap justify such a huge line? -28 and rising – Tyler Forret
Any game involving spreads a Grobe gives me pause. Grobe has been a awesome + game effect coach for years. I haven’t done big research into large lines with the Matrix so that gives me no help. Fisher has been a under performer at FSU so far and Grobe has a 3-2 advantage in the last 5 years over FSU. 4 of those 5 games would have covered +28. The Grobe/Fisher mix is, IMO, a big risk/reward to take the Seminoles with a big line. – Dave
It doesn’t make me feel good, but neither did Oregon State miss out on not playing a week 1 tune-up cupcake. I just have to stick with the formula and system. If this was at BYU I would be passing or going the other way with it. Utah getting home field is the difference. On the flip side, was Wynn very effective as an injured starter. I know Coach KW has a very good track record of over coaching. For week 3 at least, In Utes I Trust.
I just don’t see it with Strong at this point. If he can break his habit of blowing home game wins to lesser foes, he will be settling himself up for 10 wins and a top 15 finish this year. That one flash in the pan year could do it, but I am not buying. You need a great, proven game coach at Arkansas in the SEC West as your recruiting is range bound in the mid-20s to mid 30s with no new facilities.
I have also heard the name Holtz floated around and that is a huge joke. The guy has 2, TWO, upset wins in the BIG EAST, in 2 years when I picked him to lose against 4 upset loses (all at home). His profile is as bad as John L. You hire that guy and you can kiss top 4 in the SEC West goodbye for the foreseeable future.
#6. Would Grobe do anything at any other conference? The ACC seems to allow that more so than others. - Brandon Falcon
Your guess is a good as mine. I would tend to say yes. Success is not transferable but Grobe has done a lot with much less talent than he is given credit for at Wake. In my opinion the ACC allows it, and consequently their reputation as a power conference is damaged because the coaching at the top recruiter (Miami, UNC, FSU) has been weak to terrible. Grobe has taken advantage of that but has also be a consistent upset threat for many years. UNC should have grabbed that guy not that under coaching guy from USM. UNC could have been top 15 this year with Grobe, IMO.
#7. Well then, who would be a possibility of a new, and effective, HC for Arkansas according to your HC matrix? Aaron Caldwell
IMO you have to start with the choice of defensive minded coach (like the SEC) or go big offense mind to counter and recruit. The SEC is sooooo tough and Arkansas has semi-elite talent you need to go with a proven coach. Start with this list of Coaching Effect Leaders. I don’t see #1-#3 leaving. Patterson, defense minded calculated gambler, would be in the top 3 if not #1. Whittingham, Gundy and Dantonio would round out my top 4 to give SEC coaching money. If you want to compete better, you need to get some donors to build facilities that attract talent.
#8. 5 LSU players ruled academically inelible for the rest of the season. Does that make them an upset alert? Kevin Mitchem
No. As I have already show with returning starters, players loses mean little for predictions. Elites like LSU just simply reload. Unless one of these guys is a star QB or a player that is not replaceable, I see no reason to change my #2 in the SEC West expectations for the Tigers.
#9. Speaking of ULM, does Auburn finally get a win (& ATS) this week? They have to be hungry for one and ULM must be on cloud nine The Saturday Edge
They better or this dumpster fire is going officially to 3 alarm. At -900 they are not really heavy favorites, but anyone playing this because of what happened last week is just falling prey to a Gamblers Fallacy. Auburn to win all day long. Anything else and Auburn may be fighting with Arkansas over the next head coach.
#10. What does “WOW!” mean by Va/Ga Tech? I kind of like Virginia +10.5 but hate going against option teams. Jamie Faidley
Ha! Guess I didn’t finish that thought on Week 3 Pick List from March. I think this is a Wow! game because it is in conference, the teams are evenly matched in talent and both coaches have been very good for several years. The shock to me is how heavily Tech is favored by nearly 3:1 over UVA. I see this one as a big coin flip. Folks looking for value, IMO, can find it right here with ATS +10.5 or the ML at a huge +325.
#11. I love the Matrix, the ideas and the numbers but isn’t it hard to accept something so simple? – Donnie
You have no idea how maddening this can be as a fan. It really is a red pill reality for me. At times I do just sit back and wonder how it keeps doing so well with so little information. As long as it is still winning and fans like it, I just keep taking the red pill too.
#12. Rich Ross
@ski33golf Toledo over BG looks great. Any thoughts?
I am pretty solid in the corner of Toledo at home in this one. They have the talent and field advantage in this game IMO. That’s why I picked them back in March to get the W. But…..be very careful. Bowling Green has nearly everybody back for 2011 and in the much less talented MAC and non-AQ conferences, experience means much more than at the AQ level (see Returning Starters 2012). Toledo opened -7 and it is down to -3.5 now. Total points nearly unchanged. ML from -205 to -165 on Toledo as well. Both teams have seen BAD coaching the last 2+ years. I am on the avoiding train for anything with these two. Sorry can’t be more concrete.
#13. What about Mizzou & Arizona State? Upset Alert? - Jill in Tempe
I am solid in the Missou corner because of Pinkel’s coaching trend. In the last 5 years, when picked in March to win at home, Pinkel and the Tigers have lost just 4 times. While Graham is still a question mark, the Tigers have a talent and field advantage in addition, to what I currently see, a coaching advantage. It should be a very good game. I would even like this as a possible ML line if the value was better and Erickson (known value) was still there. LOL.