About CFB Matrix


Week 3 Pre-Season Predictions

By  | 

Week 3 Pre-Season Picks and Preview

As you know, I make all the game winner/loser picks in the pre-season using just my TLC formulas to simplify college football.  It runs between 76-79% correct.  This has been the best model over the last 7 years of picking straight up (SU) game winners in all of college football. The best year, my picks, all done before the season with no changes, finished 7 games behind the gold standard, Vegas, for the 2014 season.  And I use 3 metrics. Talent, location, coaching.

I’ve added audio for the preview each week rather than a written breakdown.  Easier and a lot more fun.  Let me know what I can do to improve them for you.

Follow me on Twitter @CFBMatrix  email dave@cfbmatrix.com or text 971-217-8419.  All questions and requests will go into my Pod for the People each week.

Quick chart overview:
Talent Gap – My talent rank difference for the teams playing.  Anything within 10 is a close match up.  Ex. Alabama has a 6.25 edge over USC.
Coach Effect – My running average of a coach’s ability to coach a team up or down by games.  Ex. Satterfield is +3 games per year, Halpin is -1.5.  Talent rules the Matrix, but Coach Effect is a strong tie break in Power 5 and should be followed closely in the Group 5 teams
OC/DC Grade – A new metric that is rooted in scoring efficiency and graded by the talent a OC/DC has versus the talent of their schedule.  Use it for close picks and for forecasting OVER/UNDER leans


listening-to-a-podcast Now on PODOMATIC  CLICK HERE to LINK    OR on iTunes CLICK TO LINK  and Follow

Week 3 TLC Picks (Done 3/5/2016)

YTD Pre-Season Picks Record (138-24)  Vegas Weekly SU Record (139-23)
#UpsetAlert Record: 2-3 SU 5-0 ATS
Over/Under Leans on OC/DC grade: 5-4



  1. Carl

    September 16, 2016 at 3:32 pm

    Hey Dave, neither Podomatic or ITunes has your week 3 podcast available. I just tried both links and no week 3. I also search for week 3 and got nothing.

  2. Carl

    September 17, 2016 at 7:48 am

    Podcast is up and running and is great as always. I disagree with the Oregon pick but growning up in Hillsboro probably makes me a bit biased. Go Ducks!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *