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Predictions

Week 5 – 2014 – Predictions

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Compiling Week 4 Predictions from our Spring Preview Magazines

It is a new year and I hope, like the last three years, the CFB Matrix system remains the best predictor of pre-season game outcomes in FBS football. With accuracy over 76% for the last three years, including the conference leader the SEC at just over 80%, this system is very easy to understand for those new to the CFB Matrix.

It is TLC.  Talent, Location and Coaching.  That is all. I have my talent rankings, which by themselves will get you about 70% right on every game, every year, stadium power rank (home field is very important in college football, and coach effect (who does more or less with their talent).

Here is how it works:  I pick all the games for 2014 in April using TLC. Talent trumps all metrics. I use home field and coaching when talent is close. Those are the only three variables I use to pick every game.  There are few that dare do it in the pre-season, and those that do have never done better than the CFB Matrix.  From 2010-2013, it is the #1 predictor in college football. There will even be weeks in which my April picks beat Vegas favorites in a given week. It is amazing when it happens with three variable and games picked 6 months before the season starts.

It’s hard to believe it could be that simple, and that is why I love it.  Easy to read, Easy to understand, Hard to believe.  That is the CFB Matrix.

YTD RESULTS of CFB Matrix Spring Preview Picks: 229-45   Vegas Weekly Faves: 227-47

week 5 2014

Visitor CE = Visiting Head Coach Road Coach Effect
Home CE = Home HC Home Coach Effect
CE Note: For P5 HC that is their ave for their tenure. For Mid Majors it is just 2013 number
Visitor T= Road Talent Rank
Home T = Home Talent Rank

 

My games thoughts on Week #5 Spring Preview Picks:

  • OSU at home getting the Red Raiders.  Trinity edge for the Pokes.  Not brave enough to leave the 13.5 on the table for the faves.
  • GASO should get another one at home.  Playing solid football
  • Big test for UCLA.  Actually it should not be a big test. UCLA has far more talent but an average coach on the road has the line just -5.5 for the Bruins
  • Fresno is a Coach Effect pick.  Normally talent gap to narrow to not take home team but coach effect gap is over 2 games.
  • MTSU is a coach effect pick as well.  Slightly better talent and Stockstill has been darn good.
  • Michigan State has TLC edges.
  • UGA at home is not that great.  This is where they get upset most often.  Still feel Vols a year away.
  • Badgers with full TLC Trinity.  USF coaching is horrid.
  • Kansas State at home with full TLC edges.
  • Purdue is bad.  Hawks have no trouble.
  • Northwestern at Penn State makes me raise my eyebrows.  Two of the top five coach effect guys of the last three years.  I would be more confident if this was at Northwestern.  Fitz is a devil in disguise on the road.
  • Terps at Hoosiers in battle of Dead men Walking.  Two poor coaches that can’t recruit. I don’t trust either so I threw the dice at the home team.
  • FSU should cruise.  NC State has been a disaster at home under Doeren.
  • Aggies have a talent rank that is too high to not take them in the Matrix anywhere against the Hogs.
  • Not confident about WKU over Navy.  Coach Ken has been on a roll the last 1.5 years.
  • I got Michigan but Hoke won’t last 24 hours if he goes down to Minnesota.
  • Virginia has too much talent. London isn’t that bad is he?
  • FIU/AUB looks to be tight. Ugly but close.
  • Louisville should smoke Wake.  Wake is poor.
  • FUGLY game of the week Redhawks at Buffalo.  Yuck.
  • Auburn with the massive TLC edges.  Good night Tech
  • Dykes is done if he loses to Colorado at home (might be done regardless)
  • UConn/Temple another fugly one.  Numbers lead UConn but gut leans Owls.
  • Horns under. 500, Jayhawks over .500.  What. The. Hell.
  • UPSET ALERT in Seattle – See ya there!
  • USA all the way to Idaho?  Looooong trip
  • Ohio State with the Trinity Trifecta
  • Gamecock at home with better talent and better coach (yes a little better Tigers) that’s the Trinity.
  • Clemson with the Trinity AND going against Fedora/
  • Toledo over CMU is ugly coach effect match up.
  • USTA is a big Coach Effect pick with +3 Coker at FAU
  • ULM coach does a lot with his talent
  • Ole Miss should cruise.  Tons of points!
  • NMSU is going to get it baaaaad in Baton rouge this week.
  • I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Canes picks, but what are you going to do.  Golden should be cooked if he loses to Duke again. At home.
  • Baylor is OK on the road. ISU OK at home.  Rhoads is better than most give him credit for in Ames.
  • Notre Dame will cruise.
  • SDSU needs a win at home. Will get it.
  • Leach is tough on the road. Utah is good at home and on the road.  Like the Utes with home field and better talent.  Coaching is a toss up.
  • Huskers with the Trinity.
  • USC has home field and way better talent.  They don’t have a better game coach.  Sark pretty darn good at home at UW.  Trojans win.
  • Stupid me.  Picked SJSU ahead of Nevada but Wolfpack has better talent and coach.  Close game.

 

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